Edition

Iran Starts Producing Uranium Metal, Upping Pressure on Biden in Nuclear Standoff

IN THIS ISSUE: Air Force Prepares for Budget Battle Over Nuclear Weapons, UN Experts: North Korea Using Cyber Attacks to Update Nukes, Truth Behind Killing of Iran Nuclear Scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh Revealed, In Their Own Words: Foreign Military Thought, Science of Military Strategy, The United States Would be More Secure Without New Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles

Published on February 11, 2021

Iran Starts Producing Uranium Metal, Upping Pressure on Biden in Nuclear Standoff

CBS News

Iran has started producing uranium metal, the United Nations nuclear watchdog agency said Wednesday, in a fresh breach of the limits laid out in Tehran's 2015 nuclear deal with world powers. The latest violation of the deal, which is aimed at preventing Tehran from developing nuclear weapons, came as Iran warned that time was running out for President Joe Biden's administration to save the agreement. The Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said in a report obtained by CBS News United Nations' reporter Pamela Falk that on February 8, it verified 3.6 grams of uranium metal “had been produced” at Iran's Fuel Plate Fabrication Plant in Esfahan. IAEA director general Rafael Grossi informed member states of the new violation, the statement added.

Air Force Prepares for Budget Battle Over Nuclear Weapons

Bryan Bender | POLITICO

The battle lines are being drawn for what is expected to be the biggest clash over the Pentagon budget this year: whether to keep pursuing a new $100 billion replacement for the nuclear missiles now on standby across three Western states. The Air Force and its allies in Congress, think tanks and defense contractors are sharpening their arguments for why any delay or reversal in replacing the 400 Minuteman III missiles that were first deployed in 1970 would weaken the U.S. nuclear deterrent while Russia and China are updating or expanding their arsenals. But progressive lawmakers and disarmament advocates are lobbying allies in the Biden administration for a pause in the program, arguing that holding off could save billions, considering that future arms control agreements might require fewer intercontinental ballistic missiles, if any at all.

UN Experts: North Korea Using Cyber Attacks to Update Nukes

Edith M. Lederer | AP

North Korea has modernized its nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles by flaunting United Nations sanctions, using cyberattacks to help finance its programs and continuing to seek material and technology overseas for its arsenal including in Iran, U.N. experts said. The panel of experts monitoring sanctions on the Northeast Asian nation said in a report sent to Security Council members Monday that North Korea’s “total theft of virtual assets from 2019 to November 2020 is valued at approximately $316.4 million,” according to one unidentified country. The panel said its investigations found that North Korean-linked cyber actors continued to conduct operations in 2020 against financial institutions and virtual currency exchange houses to generate money to support its weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile programs.

Truth Behind Killing of Iran Nuclear Scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh Revealed

Jake Wallis Simons | The Jewish Chronicle

The Iranian nuclear scientist who was shot dead near Tehran in November was killed by a one-ton automated gun that was smuggled into the country piece-by-piece by the Mossad, the JC can reveal. The 20-plus spy team, which comprised both Israeli and Iranian nationals, carried out the high-tech hit after eight months of painstaking surveillance, intelligence sources disclosed. The Tehran regime has secretly assessed that it will take six years before a replacement for top scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh is fully operational. Meanwhile, Israeli analysts have concluded that his death has extended the period of time it would take Iran to achieve a bomb from about three-and-a-half months to two years — with senior intelligence figures privately putting it as high as five years.

In Their Own Words: Foreign Military Thought, Science of Military Strategy

China Aerospace Studies Institute

The “In Their Own Words” series is dedicated to translations of Chinese documents in order to help non-Mandarin speaking audiences access and understand Chinese thinking. CASI would like to thank all of those involved in this effort, especially the teams from our "big brother"/ 大哥 at the China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI), Project Everest, and the CASI team at BluePath Labs.  In the “In Their Own Words” series, CASI aims to provide Chinese texts that illustrate thoughtful, clearly articulated, authoritative foreign perspectives on approaches to warfare at the strategic, operational, and tactical levels. The Science of Military Strategy (2013) is part of the Project Everest “Foreign Military Thought” series. This particular volume was published under the auspices of Project Everest in conjunction with the China Aerospace Studies Institute.

The United States Would be More Secure Without New Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles

Frank N. von Hippel | Bulletin of Atomic Scientists

The United States has 400 Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) suspended in reinforced concrete underground missile silos, plus an additional 50 empty silos, spaced about 10 kilometers apart near Air Force bases in Montana, North Dakota, and Wyoming (Figure 1). The missiles were originally deployed during the 1970s. During the Obama administration, the Defense Department launched the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent program to replace these ICBMs with an equal number of new missiles,  plus spare and test missiles, for a total of 642. In September 2020, the Air Force awarded a $13.3 billion sole-source contract to Northrup Grumman for the weapon system design. The Air Force estimates the project’s capital cost will run to over $100 billion, while the Congressional Budget Office estimates that the total cost, including 30 years of operations, will be $150 billion.

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.