Is It a Nuke? Pre-Launch Ambiguity and Inadvertent Escalation
James Acton | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Ambiguity about whether a weapon is nuclear-armed prior to its launch is an underappreciated, serious, and growing danger. Rising geopolitical tensions and the decay of arms control are exacerbating the risk that such pre-launch warhead ambiguity could lead to nuclear use in a crisis or conflict. Recent developments in technology—as well as potential future advances, such as the development of ambiguous intercontinental missiles—further add to the danger.
Is Iran's Nuclear Future in the Hands of Russia or China?
Marks Hibbs | Strategic Europe
Five years after Tehran concluded a landmark nuclear agreement with foreign powers, concern about Iran’s nuclear peaceful-use credentials has resurfaced. In coming weeks, months, and beyond, Russia—and perhaps China—may be called upon to take the lead in securing Iran’s cooperation to manage this issue. Architects of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)—the Iran nuclear deal—anticipated that, should Iran balk at cooperating with the IAEA in implementing the agreement, the other parties—China, three European states, Russia, and the United States—would unite, persuade Iran to cooperate, and nip a crisis in the bud.
Russia Says US 'Unwillingness' Is Threatening Major Nuclear Weapons Deal
David Brennan | Newsweek
Russia has again pointed the finger at the U.S. for delaying the extension of the New START nuclear weapons treaty, which expires next year. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters Wednesday that any questions about why the deal has not been extended should be directed to Washington rather than Moscow. Peskov said the Kremlin remains keen to make a deal, but has met with delay from the White House. Russia has repeatedly said that it wants to extend New START, but the U.S. has still not revealed its plans. President Donald Trump has hinted that they wish to include China in any new deal, but experts—among them one of the original negotiators of START—have warned this is not feasible in such a short time frame.
Pakistan Shoots Down Indian Drone As Kashmir Tensions Rise
Channel News Asia
Pakistan's army said on Thursday (Apr 9) it had shot down a small Indian surveillance drone in Kashmir, as tensions rose over continued cross-border shelling in the disputed territory. According to a statement from the army media wing, the Indian quadcopter - about the same size as a commercially available hobby drone - had crossed 600m over the de facto border known as the Line of Control (LoC). An Indian army spokesman said the drone "is not ours". The incident came as Pakistan and India accuse each other of violating ceasefire terms at the LoC, with sporadic shelling reported from both sides.
North Korea Could Be Using Fertilizer Plants to Make More Nuclear Material, Report Shows
Tom O'Connor | Newsweek
North Korea could be using fertilizer factories it is building to produce more nuclear material by extracting uranium from phosphoric acids, according to a new study. Researcher Margaret Croy said this technique can be used by North Korea as a way to conceal it was attaining uranium as part of the country's fervent drive to boost agricultural output. Croy, a research associate of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey's James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, made her case in a paper published by the center called "Dual Use in the DPRK: Uranium Extraction from Phosphate Fertilizer Factories."
AFGSC Eyes Hypersonic Weapons for B-1, Conventional LRSO
John Tirpak | Air Force Magazine
Global Strike Command is planning to put the hypersonic AGM-183 Air-launched Rapid Response Weapon externally on the B-1 bomber, and AFGSC chief Gen. Timothy Ray said he sees a conventional version of the Long-Range Stand-Off weapon as a sensible approach to replacing the conventional Air-Launched Cruise Missile if a weapon with longer range than the JASSM-ER is required. That modification would include opening up eight external hardpoints on the bomber’s fuselage that were originally planned to carry two ALCMS each; subsequent treaty agreements took the B-1 out of the nuclear mission and the hardpoints were covered over.