Might India Start the Next South Asia Crisis?
Toby Dalton and Gaurav Kalwani | War on the Rocks
What will trigger the next crisis in South Asia? Conventional wisdom holds that it will follow a script common to successive crises since the early 1990s. The pattern starts with a high-casualty terror attack in India, attributed to Pakistan-based militant groups with a long history of carrying out cross-border operations, which then puts the onus on India to calibrate escalation in its response. Just because nearly every crisis between India and Pakistan in the last three decades began with an act of cross-border terrorism, however, does not mean that other potential catalysts should be neglected. One intriguing alternative deserves scrutiny: Instead of an attack in India that initiates crisis, what if one arose following a proactive Indian operation to seize territory over the Line of Control (LOC) in the portion of the disputed territory of Kashmir controlled by Pakistan? If the next crisis starts with an Indian operation, the odds are much greater that it will escalate quickly to war for reasons that the conventional South Asia crisis wisdom tends to discount.
Iran to Fuel Centrifuges in New Step Away From Nuclear Deal
Nasser Karimi and Jon Gambrell | AP
Iran will start injecting uranium gas into over a thousand centrifuges at a fortified nuclear facility built inside a mountain, the country’s president announced Tuesday in Tehran’s latest step away from its atomic accord with world powers since President Donald Trump withdrew from the deal over a year ago. President Hassan Rouhani’s announcement means that Iran’s Fordo nuclear facility, publicly revealed only 10 years ago, again will become an active atomic site rather than a research facility as envisioned by the landmark 2015 accord. The announcement represents a significant development as Fordo’s 1,044 centrifuges previously spun empty for testing purposes under the deal. The centrifuges at Fordo are first-generation IR-1s. The nuclear deal allowed those at Fordo to spin without uranium gas, while allowing up to 5,060 IR-1s at its Natanz facility to enrich uranium. Rouhani’s announcement came after Ali Akhbar Salehi, the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, said Monday that Tehran had doubled the number of advanced IR-6 centrifuges operating in the country to 60. Iranian scientists also are working on a prototype called the IR-9, which works 50-times faster than the IR-1, Salehi said.
Last Major Nuclear Arms Pact Could Expire With No Replacement, Russia Says
Richard Pérez-Peña, Ivan Nechepurenko and David Sanger | New York Times
A Russian arms control official said for the first time on Friday that there was not enough time to replace the last and most important nuclear arms-limitation treaty with the United States before it expires early in 2021, raising the possibility that Washington and Moscow would then be free to expand their arsenals without limits. New Start expires in February 2021, just weeks after the next presidential inauguration in Washington. While it can be extended for five years by mutual agreement, President Trump and his aides have signaled repeatedly that he intends to let it expire unless it can be broadened to include other nations with strategic weapons, chiefly China. President Vladimir V. Putin’s government has said that Russia hopes to renew or revise the treaty — but that the negotiations to revise it would have to begin immediately. “It is already clear that within the remaining time — and the treaty expires on Feb. 5, 2021 — we won’t be able to come up with a full-scale document to replace it,” Vladimir Leontyev, the deputy director of the arms control department of Russia’s Foreign Ministry, said on Friday. “The prospects of extending the treaty are unclear, too,’’ he told a panel of experts in Moscow. “The U.S. administration is silent about it.’’
N.K., U.S. May Hold Nuclear Working-Level Talks No Later Than Early Dec.: Seoul
Yonhap News Agency
North Korea and the United States may hold working-level nuclear talks in November or no later than early December, ahead of the year-end deadline Pyongyang has set for a nuclear deal with Washington, Seoul's spy agency was quoted as saying Monday. The National Intelligence Service (NIS) made the assessment during a closed-door parliamentary audit session, adding that it is also closely watching the possibility of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un visiting China within this year, according to lawmakers on the intelligence panel. “The NIS forecast North Korea and the U.S. to hold their working-level talks no later than early December,” Rep. Lee Eun-jae of the main opposition Liberty Korea Party told a press briefing. The intelligence service told lawmakers that the North and China are apparently consulting Kim's possible trip to Beijing as the two countries celebrate the 70th anniversary of the establishment of their diplomatic ties this year.
Senate Confirms Nuclear Commander
Rebecca Kheel | The Hill
The Senate confirmed Vice Adm. Charles Richard to be commander of U.S. Strategic Command by unanimous consent Thursday night as part of a batch of military nominees. Richard will also be promoted to a four-star admiral as part of the confirmation. Richard will replace Gen. John Hyten, who was confirmed as vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff after an extended confirmation process that included an investigation into allegations of sexual assault. Hyten has denied the allegations, and an Air Force investigation did not find corroborating evidence to charge him. Richard has served as commander of Submarine Forces, Submarine Force Atlantic and Allied Submarine Command since August 2018. He previously served as deputy commander of Strategic Command. Richard would not say whether he thinks the United States should leave the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) or Open Skies Treaty. He pledged to give the president his “best military advice” and listed several pros and cons with each agreement.
Gordon Open to Review of Nuclear Waste Storage Proposal
Tom Coulter | Sheridan Press
Gov. Mark Gordon said last week he could still be convinced to pursue a nuclear waste storage program that will be considered in a legislative committee meeting. During a meeting Oct. 28 with the Wyoming Tribune Eagle’s editorial board, Gordon said he would wait to see what the Wyoming Legislature finds in its studies. “I don’t think it’s the best industry for Wyoming,” Gordon said. “But I would say this emphatically: If there is a good reason to do it, and we have adequate safeguards, though personally I may not feel it’s the best industry for Wyoming, I’m not going to stand in its way.” During the second day of its meeting next week in Casper, the Legislature’s Joint Minerals, Business and Economic Development Interim Committee will consider a bill authorizing the governor to negotiate with the U.S. Department of Energy to store spent nuclear fuel rods within the state.