Much Ado About India’s No-First-Use Nuke Policy
Toby Dalton | India Global Business
Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh made headlines in August when he appeared to nullify India’s nuclear weapons no first use (NFU) policy. “Till today, our nuclear policy is ‘no first use’. What happens in future depends on the circumstances,” he said. In the context of Prime Minister Modi’s effort to project a more muscular image, Singh’s comments played well among Indian hawks. Internationally, however, a more aggressive Indian nuclear policy is raising concerns anew about nuclear conflict in South Asia. To make a nuclear pre-emption policy credible, India’s nuclear forces would require significant modification, including in military preparations to use them. If Indian decision-makers skirt the hard choices and military investments necessary to carry out nuclear pre-emption, then doing away with NFU looks more like a cosmetic change to India’s nuclear policy.
North Korea and U.S. Say Official Talks Will Resume in Days
Choe Sang-Hun | New York Times
North Korea and the United States have agreed to resume a long-stalled official dialogue this weekend in an effort to narrow their differences on how to terminate the North’s nuclear weapons program, officials of both countries said on Tuesday. “I can confirm that U.S. and D.P.R.K. officials plan to meet within the next week,” Morgan Ortagus, a spokeswoman for the State Department, told reporters, using the abbreviation for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. “I do not have further details to share on the meeting.” Choe Son-hui, first vice foreign minister of North Korea, said her government and Washington had agreed to hold preliminary contact on Friday, to be followed by official working-level negotiations on Saturday. “It is my expectation that the working-level negotiations would accelerate the positive development of the D.P.R.K.-U.S. relations,” Ms. Choe said in a statement carried by the North’s official Korean Central News Agency. North Korean officials have repeatedly indicated their willingness to resume talks with Washington in recent weeks, especially after the ouster of John R. Bolton as President Trump’s national security adviser, and Mr. Trump’s suggestion that he would use a “new method” in negotiations.
China Parades Its Latest Missiles in Challenge to U.S., Others
Christopher Bodeen | AP
Military planners in Washington and elsewhere will be taking note of new missile technology displayed by China, particularly a hypersonic ballistic nuclear missile believed capable of breaching all existing anti-missile shields deployed by the U.S. and its allies. The vehicle-mounted Dong Feng 17, or DF-17, was the standout among weapons showed off at a military parade on Tuesday marking the 70th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese state. Those also include the Dong Feng 41, or DF-41, an intercontinental ballistic missile with a range of 15,000 kilometers (9,300 miles) — China’s longest-range weapon — that that could reach the United States in 30 minutes. Also featured at the event were the JL-2 submarine-launched strategic missile believed to be standard weaponry for China’s nuclear-powered subs, as well as the CJ-100 cruise missile. All those weapons seemed intended to imbue China with the ability to back up its territorial claims with credible threats, especially against the possibility of U.S. intervention. Many, including the already deployed DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile, are seen as standoff weapons to keep U.S. aircraft carriers at bay while subjecting bases such as Guam to the possibility of attack.
Trump’s Close-Call Diplomacy With Iran’s President
Robin Wright | New Yorker
On the evening of Tuesday, September 24th, the President of France, Emmanuel Macron, went to see his Iranian counterpart, Hassan Rouhani, at the Millennium Hilton Hotel, across the street from the U.N. headquarters, in New York. The hotel is one of only three places that the Iranian leader could go in the city, because of U.S. sanctions. Macron intended to set up a three-way telephone conversation with Rouhani and President Trump. The telephone conversation was supposed to cap twenty-four hours of frenetic diplomacy—including personal appeals to Rouhani by the British, Japanese, and Pakistani Prime Ministers and the German Chancellor—after months of quiet French diplomacy. The call to Trump’s line came through at nine-thirty, according to sources familiar with events that evening. Macron took the call. But Rouhani never emerged from his room.
Russia Vows to Take Compensatory Measures, If Intermediate-Range Missiles Appear in Europe
TASS
The deployment of intermediate-and shorter-range missiles in Central and Western Europe will radically change security conditions for Russia and will force Moscow to take compensatory measures, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said in an interview with the journal International Affairs on Monday. These compensatory measures should not necessarily be related to the deployment of similar missiles in the areas, from which “they could reach, so to speak, these new systems, either American or someone else’s,” he said. The deployment “only in those areas is absolutely unnecessary,” he stressed. “That is why, it is necessary to recall the lessons of the Caribbean crisis and refresh this in memory.” As the senior Russian diplomat noted, Moscow is proposing “an alternative in the form of a moratorium on the deployment of such systems.”
As North Korea Expands Arsenal, Japan’s Missile Defense Shield Faces Unforseen Costs – Sources
Tim Kelly | Reuters
Additional tests may add at least $500 million to Japan’s price tag for two U.S.-built ballistic missile interceptor stations that could struggle to shoot down the latest North Korean missile types, four government and defense sources said. The tests are required to show the system is working properly, according to Lockheed Martin, the manufacturer. Held in Hawaii rather than Japan, they would cost about $100 million per launch. “Japan is waiting to hear back from the U.S. Missile Defense Agency about what tests will be required,” said one of the sources. “Those tests haven’t been budgeted for.” As part of a major defense upgrade, Japan in 2018 agreed to buy the land-based Aegis Ashore sites offered by Washington, rejecting a new U.S. Navy radar offered by Raytheon Co (RTN.N) in favor of one designed by rival Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT.N). The Japanese defense minister at the time, Itsunori Onodera, did not know Japan would also have to pay for missile launches to test the Lockheed radar, the sources said. One of the defense sources said the Japanese government had thought computer-simulated tests would be sufficient.