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NATO and Russia Run Nuclear-War Drills Amid Tensions Over Ukraine

IN THIS ISSUE: NATO and Russia Run Nuclear-War Drills Amid Tensions Over Ukraine, North Korea Fires More Artillery Shells Into Sea as Tensions Over Weapons Tests Continue, US General on Rare Visit to Nuclear-Armed Sub in Arabian Sea, America's New Nuclear Power Industry has a Russian Problem, UK says Russian Aircraft Fired Missile Near British Spy Plane Over Black Sea, How Not to Estimate the Like

Published on October 21, 2022

NATO and Russia Run Nuclear-War Drills Amid Tensions Over Ukraine

Michael R. Gordon and Daniel Michaels | The Wall Street Journal 

NATO and Russia are moving ahead with major nuclear exercises amid spiraling tensions over the war in Ukraine and hints from Russian President Vladimir Putin that the territory Moscow claims to have annexed could be protected by nuclear arms. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization on Monday began its exercise, which is dubbed Steadfast Noon and includes B-52 bombers flying from their base in Minot, North Dakota. Russia, for its part, will soon hold its annual Grom nuclear-readiness exercise. U.S. officials said Moscow has yet to notify the U.S. about what missile will be tested. National Security Council strategic communications coordinator John Kirby said last week that it would involve the deployment of strategic assets and missile launches.

North Korea Fires More Artillery Shells Into Sea as Tensions Over Weapons Tests Continue

PBS News

North Korea fired about 100 more artillery shells toward the sea Wednesday in response to South Korean live-firing drills at border areas as the rivals accuse each other of dialing up tensions on the Korean Peninsula with weapons tests. The drills conducted by both sides come amid heightened animosities over recent North Korean missile tests that it calls simulated nuclear attacks on South Korean and U.S. targets.

US General on Rare Visit to Nuclear-Armed Sub in Arabian Sea

LOLITA C. BALDOR | Associated Press

The top U.S. military commander for the Middle East boarded a U.S. ballistic missile submarine in the Arabian Sea on Wednesday, a rare move that highlighted U.S. nuclear undersea capabilities during tense times with Iran and Russia. Gen. Erik Kurilla was shuttled out to the USS West Virginia and went aboard for about eight hours as the submarine rose to the surface in an undisclosed location in international waters in the sea.

America's New Nuclear Power Industry has a Russian Problem

Sarah Mcfarlane Timothy Gardner and Susanna Twidale | Reuters

U.S. firms developing a new generation of small nuclear power plants to help cut carbon emissions have a big problem: only one company sells the fuel they need, and it's Russian. That's why the U.S. government is urgently looking to use some of its stockpile of weapons-grade uranium to help fuel the new advanced reactors and kick-start an industry it sees as crucial for countries to meet global net-zero emissions goals.

UK says Russian Aircraft Fired Missile Near British Spy Plane Over Black Sea

Kylie Maclellan and Farouq Suleiman | Reuters

A Russian fighter jet released a missile near an unarmed British spy plane patrolling in international airspace over the Black Sea on Sept. 29, UK defence minister Ben Wallace said, in an apparent accident and not a deliberate escalation of tensions. Britain has condemned Russia for invading Ukraine and hit Moscow with punitive sanctions while giving military and civil support to Kyiv, and relations between the two countries are at historic lows.

How Not to Estimate the Likelihood of Nuclear War

Amy J. Nelson and Alexander H. Montgomery | Brookings Institution 

As Russia retaliated for Ukraine’s destruction of the Kerch Bridge by launching strikes on energy facilities and civilian targets in Kyiv, commentators returned to the question of whether events were escalating, and whether the world was inching closer to the brink of nuclear war. Probability estimates by these observers have, unsurprisingly, mushroomed as well.Here, we lay out the debate over the probability of nuclear use, outlining flaws in current estimates. We offer an alternative approach that focuses on thinking broadly across multiple scenarios and minimizing the rewards of using nuclear weapons

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