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NATO Should Save the INF Treaty

IN THIS ISSUE: NATO Should Save the INF Treaty, North Korean Missile Base at Yeongjeo-Dong, Growing Split in Seoul over North Korea Threatens Korea Detente, Nuclear Talks, Trump to Meet with Kim Jong-Un, Despite North Korea’s Lapses, Bolton Says, Putin Threatens Arms Race if U.S. Walks Away from Nuclear Weapons Treaty, U.N. Adopts Japan’s Anti-Nuke Resolution but U.S. Abstains

Published on December 6, 2018

NATO Should Save the INF Treaty

James Acton | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo gave the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty a short reprieve this week. Rather than announcing that the United States had given Russia formal notification of its withdrawal—as had been expected—he stated that Washington would now wait sixty days, giving Moscow once last chance to return to compliance. NATO must use this time productively by developing a plan that might credibly induce Moscow to reverse its violation and, even if it does not, will nonetheless preserve the alliance’s security. For any such plan to be effective, the allies must “stay in sync,” to use Pompeo’s phrase. To this end, private diplomatic consultations on a unified approach should begin immediately.

North Korean Missile Base at Yeongjeo-Dong

Jeffrey Lewis and Dave Schmerler | Arms Control Wonk

Why are experts so skeptical of North Korea’s offer to dismantle the test stand it uses to test new rocket engines?  One reason is that North Korea is currently producing and deploying nuclear-armed missiles.  While closing a test stand would make it harder for North Korea to design new types of missiles, it would not prevent North Korea from continuing to mass-produce and deploy existing types of nuclear-armed missiles, including those that can strike the United States, as Kim Jong Un publicly announced that North Korea would do on 1 January 2018. Missiles are being deployed at bases throughout North Korea, many of which have long been known to outside analysts. One such facility is the missile base near Yeongjeo-dong. The missile base at Yeongjeo-dong has long been a concern to US and South Korean officials because of its location deep in the mountainous interior of the country, up against the Chinese border. Because of that location, the base is a strong candidate to receive North Korea’s newer missiles, including those that can strike the United States.

Growing Split in Seoul over North Korea Threatens Korea Detente, Nuclear Talks

Hyonhee Shin | Reuters

When Seoul was preparing to open a liaison office in the North Korean city of Kaesong this summer after a decade of virtually no contact with its longtime enemy, South Korean officials had heated debates over whether they should seek approval from Washington. Some top aides to President Moon Jae-in stressed it was an issue for the two Koreas alone and there was no need to involve their U.S. ally, two people with knowledge of the situation told Reuters. 

Trump to Meet with Kim Jong-Un, Despite North Korea’s Lapses, Bolton Says

Edward Wong and David Sanger | New York Times

President Trump plans to hold a second summit meeting early next year with Kim Jong-un, even though North Korea has failed to follow through with promises to start dismantling its nuclear weapons program, John R. Bolton, the national security adviser, said on Tuesday. “They have not lived up to the commitments so far,” Mr. Bolton said. “That’s why I think the president thinks another summit is likely to be productive.”

Putin Threatens Arms Race if U.S. Walks Away from Nuclear Weapons Treaty

Alec Luhn | Telegraph

Vladimir Putin has said Moscow will develop new mid-range nuclear weapons in response to Donald Trump's planned withdrawal from a key arms control treaty with Russia. The statement came after secretary of state Mike Pompeo said on Tuesday that the United States would no longer abide by the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty if Russia did not come into compliance within 60 days.  Mr Putin insisted that he was “against the destruction of this treaty,” but agreed with Mr Trump's complaint that it ties the hands of the two Cold War foes while other countries can develop short- and intermediate-range nuclear missiles. 

U.N. Adopts Japan’s Anti-Nuke Resolution but U.S. Abstains

Japan Times

The U.N. General Assembly endorsed a Japanese anti-nuclear resolution by a wide margin on Wednesday, but the United States abstained in a shift of position from the previous year. The U.N. organ also adopted an Austria-led resolution calling on member countries to ratify a landmark treaty banning nuclear weapons at an early date, the first approval of the motion this year. The ban treaty was first adopted last summer.

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.