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New Approaches to Verifying and Monitoring North Korea’s Nuclear Arsenal

IN THIS ISSUE: New Approaches to Verifying and Monitoring North Korea’s Nuclear Arsenal, A 2nd New Nuclear Missile Base for China, and Many Questions About Strategy, Koreas Talk Again in Dormant Channels, Agree to Improve Ties, Air-Launched Missiles Slated as First U.S. Hypersonic Weapons, No. 2 State Dept. Official to Lead Nuclear Talks With Russia Next Week, France Says Iran Endangers Compromising Chance for Nuclear Deal

Published on July 27, 2021

New Approaches to Verifying and Monitoring North Korea’s Nuclear Arsenal

Ankit Panda, Toby Dalton, Thomas MacDonald, and Megan DuBois | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

The Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, with support from the Korea Foundation, convened a group of international experts over several workshops in early 2021 to study novel tools and approaches to the verification and monitoring of a range of possible nuclear and missile restraints on North Korea. Their findings and proposals are summarized in this compilation. The experts broadly addressed potential accountable items in North Korea, including missiles, fissile material stocks, and warheads; piecemeal and probabilistic approaches to general verification and nuclear safeguards; open-source intelligence techniques that might support verification and confidence-building efforts; import-export monitoring; and lessons from other monitoring regimes, including the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with Iran.

A 2nd New Nuclear Missile Base for China, and Many Questions About Strategy

William J. Broad and David E. Sanger | New York Times

In the barren desert 1,200 miles west of Beijing, the Chinese government is digging a new field of what appears to be 110 silos for launching nuclear missiles. It is the second such field discovered by analysts studying commercial satellite images in recent weeks. It may signify a vast expansion of China’s nuclear arsenal — the cravings of an economic and technological superpower to show that, after decades of restraint, it is ready to wield an arsenal the size of Washington’s, or Moscow’s. Or, it may simply be a creative, if costly, negotiating ploy.

Koreas Talk Again in Dormant Channels, Agree to Improve Ties

Hyung-Jin Kim | Associated Press

North and South Korea exchanged messages Tuesday in communication channels that have been dormant for more than a year and agreed to improve ties — positive steps but ones that still leave any resumption of stalled negotiations to rid the North of its nuclear weapons a long way off. Liaison officials from the Koreas had several phone conversations including one on a military hotline and agreed to resume speaking regularly, Seoul officials said. The rivals use the channels to lay out their positions on issues and even propose broader dialogue, and the links are also critical to preventing any accidental clashes along their disputed sea boundary.

Air-Launched Missiles Slated as First U.S. Hypersonic Weapons

Stew Magnusun | National Defense

The Air Force’s AGM-183A Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapon is poised to be the first hypersonic offensive system to move from development to procurement, the Defense Department’s point man on the technology said. There will be a number of test flights for ARRW — pronounced “arrow” — over the next year with fielding planned in 2022, Mike White, principal director for hypersonics in the office of the undersecretary of defense for research and engineering, said recently. The 2022 budget proposal released in late May supports an “accelerated buying strategy” that will transition some of the various research-and-development programs to weapons procurement, he added.

No. 2 State Dept. Official to Lead Nuclear Talks With Russia Next Week

Laura Kelly | The Hill

The State Department on Friday announced that its second-top diplomat will lead the U.S. delegation for nuclear talks with Russia and set to take place in Geneva next week. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman will lead the U.S. team for the first Strategic Stability Dialogue with Russia, a key meeting to discuss efforts at nonproliferation between the two nuclear powers. The bilateral meeting will take place on Wednesday.

France Says Iran Endangers Compromising Chance for Nuclear Deal

Reuters

France’s foreign ministry said on Monday that Iran was endangering the chance of concluding an accord with world powers over reviving its 2015 nuclear deal if it did not return to the negotiating table soon. “If it continues on this path, not only will it continue to delay when an agreement to lift sanctions can be reached, but it risks jeopardising the very possibility of concluding the Vienna talks and restoring the JCPOA,” or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, foreign ministry spokeswoman Agnes von der Muhll told reporters in a daily briefing.

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.