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No Magic in Nuclear Buildup

IN THIS ISSUE: The New START Verification Regime: How Good Is It? Trump to Withdraw From ‘Open Skies’ Arms Control Treaty, White House Weighs Shorter Extension of Nuclear Arms Pact With Russia, Debate to Relocate US Nuclear Weapons to Poland Irks Russia

Published on May 21, 2020

No Magic in Nuclear Buildup

Tong Zhao | China-US Focus

A Chinese tabloid editor recently proposed that China should rapidly expand its nuclear arsenal to 1,000 weapons, so as to cope with new security threats. The suggestion stirred the pot and had broad repercussions at home and abroad. To determine whether China should expand its nuclear arsenal quickly and substantially, one first needs to look at the overall background of the evolution of the international nuclear stockpile.  China once had the smallest nuclear arsenal of the five nuclear powers. But to ensure the effectiveness of its deterrence in a complex security environment, it has made steady efforts to modernize the arsenal.

The New START Verification Regime: How Good Is It?

Rose Gottemoeller | Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

The verification regime of the New START Treaty has again come under fire in recent weeks.  Indeed, the New START verification regime does not replicate all the measures contained in the earlier agreement, and for very good reason: New START made good use of what worked in previous treaties, but it did not perpetuate problems encountered in implementing those treaties. New START contains detailed, streamlined procedures that make inspections reliable in confirming information that the Russians provide to the United States, and, of course, vice versa. It is precisely this carefully crafted verification regime that has made the treaty, which limits each nation’s strategic nuclear arsenals at no more than 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads and 700 delivery platforms, so effective and trustworthy.

Trump to Withdraw From ‘Open Skies’ Arms Control Treaty

David Sanger | New York Times

President Trump has decided to withdraw from another major arms control accord, according to senior administration officials, and will inform Russia on Friday that the United States is pulling out of the Open Skies Treaty, negotiated three decades ago to allow nations to fly over each other’s territory with elaborate sensor equipment to assure they are not preparing for military action. American officials have long complained that Moscow was violating the Open Skies accord by not permitting flights over a city where it was believed Russia was deploying nuclear weapons that could reach Europe, as well as forbidding flights over major Russian military exercises.

White House Weighs Shorter Extension of Nuclear Arms Pact With Russia

Bryan Bender | Politico

The Trump administration is weighing a face-saving strategy for keeping an Obama-era nuclear treaty from expiring while it pursues a more sweeping arms pact with both Russia and China, according to current and former administration officials with direct knowledge of the deliberations. Under the plan, the White House would temporarily extend the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty while seeking a new agreement with Moscow that also tries to convince China to come to the table, they said. The diplomatic formula is viewed at the State Department and National Security Council as a promising way to both prevent New START from expiring in February and getting Russia to agree — at least in principle — to more comprehensive limits on nuclear arms.

Debate to Relocate US Nuclear Weapons to Poland Irks Russia

Alexandra Brzozowski | Euractiv

Some US officials are eyeing Poland as a new home to the US nuclear arsenal in Europe, after German Social Democrats reopened the debate about whether the country should remain under Washington’s protective nuclear umbrella. And the latest twist has already displeased Russia, Poland’s mighty eastern neighbour. US Ambassador to Poland, Georgette Mosbacher, upped the ante and suggested that in the event that Germany should attempt to “reduce its nuclear potential and weaken NATO”, “perhaps Poland, which pays its fair share, understands the risks and is on NATO’s Eastern Flank, could house the capabilities”. Although Warsaw has not officially sought such a solution, the possibility has been discussed since December 2015 by the then deputy defence minister and Poland’s current Ambassador to NATO, Tomasz Szatkowski.

Trump Touts New ‘Super Duper’ Missile But Pentagon Won’t Confirm Details

Ryan Browne and Barbara Starr | CNN

President Donald Trump on Friday boasted that the US military is developing a new "super duper" missile that he claimed can travel 17-times faster than anything in the current arsenal, a claim the Pentagon was unwilling to confirm. "We are building, right now, incredible military equipment at a level that nobody has ever seen before. We have no choice. We have to do it -- with the adversaries we have out there. We have a -- I call it the 'super-duper missile.' And I heard the other night, 17 times faster than what they have right now," Trump said at a White House event to sign the 2020 Armed Forces Day Proclamation. Despite the fact Trump made the seemingly off-the-cuff announcement alongside the Pentagon's leadership, the department did not provide details of the weapon the President seemed to have unveiled. 

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