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North Korea Hints at ‘Resuming’ Long-Range Weapons Tests After New US Sanctions

IN THIS ISSUE: North Korea Hints at ‘Resuming’ Long-Range Weapons Tests After New US Sanctions, Iran Deal Requires Faster Diplomacy or Slower Nuclear Advances: U.S. Official, ‘Decisive’ Moment Nears as West Sees Only Weeks to Salvage Iran Nuclear Deal, Russia Threatened a “Military-Technical” Response for Unmet Demands. What Could That Mean?, Upgraded Arrow-3 Test Has Kinetic Kill on Simulated Ira

Published on January 20, 2022

North Korea Hints at ‘Resuming’ Long-Range Weapons Tests After New US Sanctions

Colin Zwirko | NK News

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un convened a Politburo meeting Wednesday to discuss strengthening the country’s military and “reconsidering” concessions made to the U.S. in response to “hostile” actions from Washington, according to state media. The Politburo “instructed the field concerned to reconsider all the confidence-building measures previously and voluntarily taken by our state and rapidly examine the issue on resuming all actions which had been temporarily suspended,” the Rodong Sinmun reported Thursday.

Iran Deal Requires Faster Diplomacy or Slower Nuclear Advances: U.S. Official

Barak Ravid | Axios

To get a deal, Iran will have to either accelerate its pace at the negotiating table or slow down the pace of its nuclear program to buy more time for diplomacy, a senior U.S. official involved in the Vienna nuclear talks tells Axios. Why it matters: Biden administration officials have set the end of January or beginning of February as an unofficial deadline for the talks, in large part because they believe Iran's nuclear advances will soon render the 2015 deal ineffective.

‘Decisive’ Moment Nears as West Sees Only Weeks to Salvage Iran Nuclear Deal

Josh Irish and Simon Lewis | Reuters

The United States and its European allies said on Thursday that it was now just a matter of weeks to salvage the 2015 Iran nuclear deal after a round of talks in which a French diplomatic source said there had been no progress on the core issues. Indirect talks between Iran and the United States on reviving the nuclear deal resumed almost two months ago. Western diplomats have previously indicated they were hoping to have a breakthrough over the next few weeks, but sharp differences remain with the toughest issues still unresolved. Iran has rejected any deadline imposed by Western powers.

Russia Threatened a “Military-Technical” Response for Unmet Demands. What Could That Mean?

Pavel Podvig | Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Russia recently presented the United States and NATO with two draft treaties that outlined Moscow’s vision of “ironclad” security guarantees for itself. The only elements of surprise of the demands were their urgency and the fact that they were made against the backdrop of what appears to be a significant concentration of military hardware in western Russia. Otherwise, the draft treaties’ key points are not entirely new. And their forceful nature appears to have produced a high-level meeting between US and Russian diplomats followed by a session of the NATO-Russia Council and a discussion at the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. Given Moscow’s ongoing frustration with feeling unheard, that was no small thing. But none of these meetings produced a tangible result. And the chasm between the parties’ positions on nearly every issue is unlikely to be bridged soon.

Upgraded Arrow-3 Test Has Kinetic Kill on Simulated Iranian Ballistic Missile

Arie Egozi | Breaking Defense

This week’s successful test of an upgraded Arrow-3 ballistic missile interceptor is an important step in Israel’s homeland defense plans, as Israel seeks to counter advanced Iranian ballistic systems. Two upgraded Arrow-3 interceptors were launched simultaneously against two targets that were imitating emerging threat capabilities from Iran, including a multiple independently targeted reentry vehicle (MIRV), salvos of ballistic missiles and maneuvering warheads. Israeli sources that were present in the control room in the Palmachim IAF base told Breaking Defense that the targets were destroyed by kinetic kill.

Meet the Nuclear Sleuths Shaking Up U.S. Spycraft

Amy Zegart | POLITICO

In 2011, a former Pentagon strategist named Phillip Karber who was teaching at Georgetown University asked his students to study the Chinese tunnel system known as the “underground great wall.” The tunnel’s existence was well-known, but its purpose was not. Karber’s students turned to commercial imagery, blogs, military journals, even a fictional Chinese television drama to get answers. They concluded the tunnels were probably being used to hide 3,000 nuclear weapons. This was an astronomical number, about 10 times higher than declassified intelligence estimates and other forecasts of China’s nuclear arsenal. The shocking findings were featured in the Washington Post, circulated among top officials in the Pentagon, and led to a congressional hearing. They were also incorrect.

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.