North Korea’s Dangerous Turn
Ankit Panda | The Diplomat
In January 2021, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un told his country – and the world – about the plans he had for the evolution and modernization of his nuclear deterrent. He outlined a far-reaching, ambitious menu of military modernization goals. Among these were tactical nuclear weapons, a capability that North Korea had until then not formally sought.
Michael Krepon (1947–2022)
Toby Dalton | Arms Control Today
Michael Krepon passed away on July 16. He survived cancers on three occasions, but for years had the feeling of “living on bonus time.” He made remarkable use of that time. His career spanned Cold War and post-Cold War efforts to restrain the spread and use of weapons of mass destruction as he worked to end the U.S. production of chemical weapons, advocated for the negotiation of strategic arms control treaties with the Soviet Union and Russia, and campaigned for the permanent extension of the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty in 1995. Yet, it was his work on South Asia that captures the essence of Michael as a thinker, mentor, and humanitarian
Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant's Backup Power Line is Down, IAEA Says
Reuters
The backup power line at the Russian-held Zaporizhzhia power plant (ZNPP) in Ukraine has been disconnected deliberately to extinguish a fire, but it was not damaged, the U.N. nuclear watchdog said on Monday, citing information supplied by Ukraine.
Nuclear Safety, Security, and Safeguards in Ukraine
IAEA
This report provides a summary of the situation in Ukraine regarding the nuclear safety, security and safeguards of nuclear facilities and activities involving radioactive sources and nuclear material in Ukraine since the first report was published.
Iran Nuclear Deal ‘in Danger’, Says EU Chief Negotiator
Henry Foy, Felicia Schwartz, Najmeh Bozorgmehr | Financial Times
The EU’s chief diplomat has said that efforts to strike a new agreement on Iran’s nuclear program are “in danger” after the US and Iranian positions diverged in recent days. Josep Borrell, who chairs the indirect negotiations between Washington and Tehran on reviving the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), said on Monday that he was losing confidence in finding a deal. In his most pessimistic remarks since he sent both sides a “final draft” of a possible agreement last month, the EU’s high representative for foreign and security policy said: “The positions are not closer . . . If the process does not converge, then the whole process is in danger.”
Then What? Assessing the Military Implications of Chinese Control of Taiwan
Brendan Rittenhouse Green and Caitlin Talmadge | International Security
The military implications of Chinese control of Taiwan are understudied. Chinese control of Taiwan would likely improve the military balance in China's favor because of reunification's positive impact on Chinese submarine warfare and ocean surveillance capabilities. Basing Chinese submarine warfare assets on Taiwan would increase the vulnerability of U.S. surface forces to attack during a crisis, reduce the attrition rate of Chinese submarines during a war, and likely increase the number of submarine attack opportunities against U.S. surface combatants. Furthermore, placing hydrophone arrays off Taiwan's coasts for ocean surveillance would forge a critical missing link in China's kill chain for long-range attacks. This outcome could push the United States toward anti-satellite warfare that it might otherwise avoid, or it could force the U.S. Navy into narrower parts of the Philippine Sea. Finally, over the long term, if China were to develop a large fleet of truly quiet nuclear attack submarines and ballistic missile submarines, basing them on Taiwan would provide it with additional advantages.