Edition

North Korea’s Tactical Nuclear Plans Are a Dangerous Proposition

IN THIS ISSUE: North Korea’s Tactical Nuclear Plans Are a Dangerous Proposition, The AP Interview: UN Nuke Chief Wants Ukraine Plant Access, U.S. Not Shutting Door on Possible Iran Nuclear Deal — For Now, Biden Will Visit South Korea and Japan Next Month as He Works to Keep Focus on Asia, ‘Urgent’ Need for Greater Defense Assets After DPRK Parade, Yoon Team Says, Redesigning Security Architecture

Published on April 28, 2022

North Korea’s Tactical Nuclear Plans Are a Dangerous Proposition

Ankit Panda | Foreign Policy

A little more than four years ago, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un declared his country’s nuclear deterrent complete following the first test of a large intercontinental-range ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of reaching the entirety of the U.S. homeland. Since then, however, North Korea has continued to expand the size and sophistication of its nuclear forces. One particularly worrying goal, announced last year by Kim, is the pursuit of tactical nuclear weapons. If developed and fielded, tactical nuclear weapons would lower the already-low threshold for nuclear weapons use on the Korean Peninsula. The implications for U.S. and South Korean security are severe. The Biden administration has stated its intent to “make practical progress that increases the security of the United States, our allies, and deployed forces.” Although efforts to dissuade Pyongyang from acquiring strategic weapons have failed, it’s now time to focus on the pending threat from North Korea’s tactical weapons.

The AP Interview: UN Nuke Chief Wants Ukraine Plant Access

David Keyton and Cara Anna | Associated Press

The International Atomic Energy Agency’s director-general says the level of safety at Europe’s largest nuclear plant, currently under Russian occupation in Ukraine, is like a “red light blinking” as his organization tries in vain to get access for work including repairs. Rafael Grossi, in an interview with The Associated Press, turned the focus to the nuclear plant at Zaporizhzhia — a day after the 36th anniversary of the Chernobyl disaster in 1986. That plant was also taken over by Russian forces. Grossi said that the IAEA needs access to the Zaporizhzhia plant in southern Ukraine so its inspectors can, among other things, reestablish connections with the Vienna-based headquarters of the U.N. agency. And for that, both Russia and Ukraine need to help.

U.S. Not Shutting Door on Possible Iran Nuclear Deal — For Now

Barak Ravid | Axios

The Biden administration for now is not shutting the door on a possible return to the Iran nuclear deal, despite a weekslong stalemate in the talks. The indirect negotiations between the U.S. and Iran in Vienna were paused six weeks ago with no resumption in sight. The key issue preventing a deal is Iran’s demand that the U.S. remove the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) from the U.S. blacklist of foreign terrorist organizations. Iranian officials have refused several U.S. proposals on this issue, and the Biden administration has made clear it won’t make such a move unilaterally. Secretary of State Tony Blinken, during a congressional hearing Tuesday, said it's still possible to come to an understanding about the IRGC that could pave the way for a nuclear deal.

Biden Will Visit South Korea and Japan Next Month as He Works to Keep Focus on Asia

MJ Lee and Kevin Liptak | CNN

President Joe Biden will make his first trip to Asia as president next month, visiting South Korea and Japan from May 20 to May 24, White House officials told CNN, underscoring his commitment to the region even as international attention is directed toward the crisis in Ukraine. Biden, the officials said, will hold bilateral meetings with his counterpart in each country: Korean President-elect Yoon Suk Yeol, who is set to be inaugurated on May 10, and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. In Tokyo, Biden is also set to meet with the leaders of Japan, Australia and India, in a gathering of the Quad partnership that’s been revitalized at his initiative.

‘Urgent’ Need for Greater Defense Assets After DPRK Parade, Yoon Team Says

Jeongmin Kim | NK News

South Korea must develop new weapons in response to the “grave threat” of the nuclear-capable assets North Korea displayed at its recent military parade, president-elect Yoon Suk-yeol’s transition committee said in a statement on Tuesday. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un stressed in a speech at the parade that the country’s nuclear forces cannot be bound by what he called the “primary mission” of preventing war if Pyongyang’s “fundamental interests” are at risk. Experts suggested this may be evidence that Kim is beginning to envision greater uses for his nuclear bombs beyond defense and deterrence.

Redesigning Security Architecture in a Post-Invasion World

Tanya Ogilvie-White | East Asia Forum

The grim realisation that our world has changed is starting to sink in among strategic analysts. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February, hot on the heels of a landmark China-Russia joint statement, is ushering in a new era of ideological competition and great power confrontation that is upending many assumptions of the post-Cold War international order. Key among these are assumptions that formal security architectures and economic interdependence can be relied upon to constrain great power aggression. Russia’s behaviour is throwing these ideas into disarray and left many to ponder the implications for future stability in Europe and the wider world. In the Asia Pacific, there could be significant ramifications for other incendiary security challenges, such as escalating arms races and the future of Taiwan.

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.