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Nuclear Emulation: Pakistan’s Nuclear Trajectory

IN THIS ISSUE: Nuclear Emulation: Pakistan’s Nuclear Trajectory, Why is Nuclear Entanglement so Dangerous, Russia Shows Off New Cruise Missile and Says It Abides by Landmark Treaty, With Days to go Before Deadline, Nuclear Treaty Seems Doomed, North Korea’s Kim Praises Trump as Both Raise Outlook for Talks, As Next Trump-Kim Summit Nears, Japan Worries U.S. Will Leave It in the Dark

Published on January 24, 2019

Nuclear Emulation: Pakistan’s Nuclear Trajectory

Toby Dalton and Sadia Tasleem | Washington Quarterly

Pakistan’s nuclear policy is heavily influenced by 1960s NATO flexible response strategy, and has essentially imported its contradictions into Islamabad’s own. The consequences are apparent: emulation has raised serious questions about Pakistan’s “full-spectrum deterrence” credibility, deterrence stability and future measures to manage regional security competition.

Why is Nuclear Entanglement so Dangerous

James Acton | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

It is not a good idea to mix nuclear and non-nuclear weapon systems. What are the risks, and why are countries still doing it? Entanglement describes how militaries’ nuclear and non-nuclear capabilities are becoming dangerously intertwined. In a conventional war, for example, one state could use non-nuclear weapons to attack its adversary’s nuclear weapons or their command-and-control systems. Such strikes could pressure the country being attacked into using its nuclear weapons before they were disabled.

Russia Shows Off New Cruise Missile and Says It Abides by Landmark Treaty

Neil MacFarquhar | New York Times

Senior Russian officials on Wednesday put their new cruise missile on display for a foreign audience for the first time, in an attempt to rebut American accusations that the weapon violates a key nuclear arms accord. Using the slightly odd backdrop of a military theme park outside Moscow, military officers and Russia’s senior arms control diplomat insisted that the land-based cruise missile, the Novator 9M729, conforms to the limited range allowed under the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, or I.N.F. The display for foreign military attachés and the press was meant to underscore Russia’s “increased transparency and our adherence to the I.N.F. treaty,” said Lt. Gen. Mikhail Matveyevskiy, the chief of missiles and artillery for the Russian armed forces.

With Days to go Before Deadline, Nuclear Treaty Seems Doomed

Aaron Mehta | Defense News

A top American official today indicated it is unlikely that Russia will meet the demands of the Trump administration before a Feb. 2 deadline where America will begin withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty. Asked if she was optimistic Russia would meet the U.S. deadline, Andrea Thompson, undersecretary of state for arms control and international security, was blunt: “I’m not.” The INF Treaty, signed between the U.S. and Russia in 1987, bans all land-based cruise missiles with a range between 500 and 5,500 kilometers. While the Obama administration had accused Moscow of violating the agreement by deploying such systems, most notably with the Novator 9M729 design, Pentagon officials, including former Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis, have been more vocal under the Trump administration about their concerns.

North Korea’s Kim Praises Trump as Both Raise Outlook for Talks

Youkyung Lee | Bloomberg

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un lauded U.S. President Donald Trump Wednesday and said he expects nuclear negotiations to advance “step-by-step,” state media said, a sign the regime anticipates sanctions relief as the two leaders plan a second meeting next month. Trump said on Twitter Thursday morning that he expects “another good meeting soon” and that his first meeting with Kim resulted in building a better relationship, the return of “hostages & remains” and the lessening hostilities between the two nations.

As Next Trump-Kim Summit Nears, Japan Worries U.S. Will Leave It in the Dark

Mark Landler | New York Times

A month before President Trump is scheduled to meet for a second time with Kim Jong-un of North Korea, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan appealed to Mr. Trump to keep him in the loop as he seeks a disarmament deal with the North. Mr. Abe, speaking in an interview Wednesday at the World Economic Forum, said he was confident that he was in sync with Mr. Trump on North Korea. But privately, Japanese officials and analysts worry that the American president will make a deal with Mr. Kim that leaves Japan vulnerable to a missile strike from the North. “I would like to make sure that both of our national security councils, as well as national security advisers and relevant teams, would collaborate as we move forward,” Mr. Abe said, “so that we will be able to meet the goal of denuclearization of North Korea.”

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