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Nuclear Nonproliferation After the Russia-Ukraine War

IN THIS ISSUE: Nuclear Nonproliferation After the Russia-Ukraine War, Iran Says Nuclear Deal in ‘E.R.’ Hanging on U.S. Decision, After North Korean Missile Tests, U.S. Deploys Nuclear-Powered Warship to Region, Japan’s Ruling LDP to Seek Enemy Base Strike Capability, Boris Johnson’s Bold Nuclear Bet Has Echoes of Thatcher Failure, S. Korea to Make Nuclear Power U-Turn Under New Government

Published on April 12, 2022

Nuclear Nonproliferation After the Russia-Ukraine War

Toby Dalton | Georgetown Journal of International Affairs

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, accompanied by nuclear threats to deter intervention by NATO states, is unlikely to spark a broad wave of nuclear proliferation. However, growing concerns among political leaders in Japan and South Korea about nuclear coercion by China and North Korea, and questions about the durability of U.S. defense commitments, is driving interest in nuclear acquisition. To stanch this interest, the United States may be pressured to share nuclear weapons with these allies, while Russia could look to deploy nuclear weapons on the territories of its allies.

Iran Says Nuclear Deal in ‘E.R.’ Hanging on U.S. Decision

Arsalan Shahla | Bloomberg

Iran said the 2015 nuclear deal is alive but lingering in the “emergency room,” with its fate resting on a decision by the U.S. that could lift sanctions on Tehran’s economy and oil exports. Saeed Khatibzadeh, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman, told reporters the Islamic Republic had finalized all the details needed to revive the landmark accord with other world powers involved in stalled negotiations in Vienna. But he said the U.S. had yet to take a decision on the latest Iranian proposal for how to resolve the standoff over remaining issues between the two countries, which include a Trump-era terrorism designation for Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

After North Korean Missile Tests, U.S. Deploys Nuclear-Powered Warship to Region

Dasl Yoon and Timothy W. Martin | Wall Street Journal

A U.S. nuclear-powered aircraft carrier has been sent to the waters between South Korea and Japan this week, a display of American naval firepower amid growing tensions over North Korea’s missile tests. The USS Abraham Lincoln and its strike group are located in international waters off South Korea’s southeastern coast, according to local media reports. It marks the first time such a U.S. carrier group has been deployed in the region since November 2017, a time when Washington and Pyongyang traded war threats following a flurry of major weapons tests by the Kim Jong Un regime.

Japan’s Ruling LDP to Seek Enemy Base Strike Capability

Kyodo News

A national security panel of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party on Monday agreed to propose acquiring an enemy base strike capability for review by the end of this year of the country’s exclusively defense-oriented policy under the war-renouncing Constitution. Members of the LDP’s Research Commission on National Security told reporters there was no opposition to the controversial idea of possessing an ability to disable an enemy missile during their meeting to discuss the party’s proposal to be made later in the month for the government’s revision of the National Security Strategy.

Boris Johnson’s Bold Nuclear Bet Has Echoes of Thatcher Failure

Jess Shankleman | Bloomberg

In the 1980s, then U.K. Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher proposed constructing a nuclear power station every year for a decade. In the end, only the Sizewell B plant was built. Now, energy experts from analysts to academics fear that Prime Minister Boris Johnson will also be unable to fulfill a pledge to triple the country’s atomic power capacity by 2050. Nuclear is taking a key role in an energy security strategy unveiled by the government on Thursday that’s designed to boost local supplies to reduce reliance on Russian energy.

S. Korea to Make Nuclear Power U-Turn Under New Government

Choi Si-young | Korea Herald

The transition committee working for President Yoon Suk-yeol said Tuesday that the incoming government will embrace nuclear power in its decarbonization efforts, signaling a major shift in energy policy the outgoing Moon Jae-in government had said has no place for nuclear power. Won Hee-ryong, chief policymaker setting out Yoon’s agenda, said Korea had seen more emissions and would see soaring electricity costs because of Moon’s push to phase out nuclear power, which makes up roughly a third of the country’s power. “We need to put in a right, realistic and prudent plan to achieve carbon neutrality,” he said, suggesting that Moon’s strategy to put behind what critics call one of the most efficient ways to generate energy had essentially backfired.

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