Edition

Opportunities for Nuclear Arms Control Engagement With China

IN THIS ISSUE: Opportunities for Nuclear Arms Control Engagement With China, Iran Has Capacity to Enrich Uranium at Any Percentage: Nuclear Agency, Iran, Photos Suggest a US-Criticized Satellite Launch Looms, Pentagon To Test Hypersonic Missiles at Five Times the Speed of Sound

Published on January 28, 2020

Opportunities for Nuclear Arms Control Engagement With China

Tong Zhao | Arms Control Today

The clock is ticking on an extension of the 2010 New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START). To complicate matters, instead of extending the treaty as is, Washington seeks to broaden the existing U.S.-Russian agreement by including China in a new trilateral arms control framework. There is no chance that Beijing would change its long-held views on arms control within the next 12 months before New START expires. Nonetheless, China’s growing military power and influence are producing counterpressures for China to deepen its participation in arms control. At a time when President Xi Jinping said China should “take center stage in the world,” China may find itself having to seriously prepare for major-power competitions and major-power arms control.

Iran Has Capacity to Enrich Uranium at Any Percentage: Nuclear Agency

Reuters

Iran has the capacity to enrich uranium at any percentage if Iranian authorities decide to do so, the deputy head of the country’s nuclear agency said in a report posted on its website on Saturday. “At the moment, if (Iranian authorities) make the decision, the Atomic Energy Organization, as the executor, will be able to enrich uranium at any percentage,” Ali Asghar Zarean said. Iran said earlier this month it would scrap limitations on enriching uranium, taking a further step back from commitments to a 2015 nuclear deal with six major powers, but pledged to continue cooperating with the U.N. nuclear watchdog. Tehran has steadily been reducing its compliance with the deal, which prompted Britain, France and Germany to formally accuse it in mid-January of violating the terms and activating a dispute mechanism in the deal, which could eventually lead to the reimposition of U.N. sanctions.

Iran, Photos Suggest a US-Criticized Satellite Launch Looms

Jon Gambrell | AP

Iranian officials and satellite images suggest the Islamic Republic is preparing to a launch a satellite into space after three major failures last year, the latest for a program which the U.S. claims helps Tehran advance its ballistic missile program. Satellite images from San Francisco-based Planet Labs Inc. that have been annotated by experts at Middlebury Institute of International Studies show work at a launchpad at the Imam Khomeini Spaceport in Iran’s Semnan province. The photos also show more cars and activity at a facility at the spaceport, some 230 kilometers (145 miles) southeast of Iran’s capital, Tehran. Such activity in the past has signaled a launch looms. Mohammad Javad Azari Jahromi, Iran’s information and communications technology minister and a possible contender in the country’s 2021 presidential election, also increasingly has been tweeting about the country’s satellite program. He responded to a tweet late Monday night by the U.S.-based broadcaster NPR highlighting Planet Lab’s satellite photos acknowledging Iran planned to launch a satellite system called the Zafar.

Pentagon To Test Hypersonic Missiles at Five Times the Speed of Sound

Tony Capaccio | Bloomberg

The Pentagon plans a “very aggressive” expansion of its hypersonic weapons efforts this year, with at least four initial flight tests of prototypes for glide bombs that can fly five times the speed of sound and maneuver en route, officials said. Defense Secretary Mark Esper said on Friday that the next Pentagon budget proposal will increase funding beyond the $5 billion provided in this year’s five-year budget plan for the technology that he called a key part of the “great-power competition” with China. By the end of the year we will have flown at least four times with different concepts,” Mike White, the Defense Department’s assistant director for hypersonics, said in an interview. “This year will mark the transition of our development program” as concepts “have been matured” through ground testing and the design process, White said. “We have plans to fly prototypes for land-, sea- and air-launched  concepts being developed across our portfolio.” He said Lockheed Martin Corp. and Raytheon Co. are developing the projects as the prime contractors.

India Conducts Second January 2020 Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile Test

Ankit Panda | Diplomat

For the second time in six days, India conducted a test-launch of its longest-range submarine-launched ballistic missile, the K-4, from an underwater pontoon. The test was the second this month, with another taking place on January 19. Like the first test, the second K-4 launch was reported to have been successful. “The K-4 is now virtually ready for its serial production to kick-off. The two tests have demonstrated its capability to emerge straight from underwater and undertake its parabolic trajectory,”  said an official source cited by the Times of India. A nuclear-capable missile, the K-4 will eventually arm India’s fleet of nuclear-propelled ballistic missile submarines. Currently, a single Indian ballistic missile submarine, INS Arihant, is operational. The K-4 is reported to have a range capability of around 3,500 kilometers. Aside from the K-4, India has also developed the K-15 Sagarika short-range submarine-launched ballistic missile. Also nuclear-capable, the Sagarika has an estimated range capability of 700 kilometers. The Sagarika is primarily positioned to hold targets in southern Pakistan, including Karachi, at risk from the Sea.

Hawaii Missile Range Considered As Site for $1B Ballistic Missile Defense Radar

Wyatt Olson | Stars and Stripes

The Missile Defense Agency is considering a Navy base on the Hawaiian island of Kauai as a possible site for a planned $1-billion ballistic missile radar. The recent inclusion of the Pacific Missile Range Facility at Barking Sands on Kauai’s west coast could be a way of sidestepping local opposition over three sites on Oahu the agency has studied as possible sites. The U.S. Navy operates the missile range, which includes about 1,100 square miles of adjoining sea, from about 2,400 acres of government-owned property. The planned radar would identify, track and classify long-range ballistic missiles in mid-flight. Interceptors would be fired from outside Hawaii. The Missile Defense Agency had originally projected completing construction in 2021 and full operation in 2023, but the agency now expects the environmental review will not be ready for public comment until the end of 2021.

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.