Perceptions in the Euro-Atlantic
Ulrich Kühn | UNIDIR
Risk of nuclear weapon use—be it deliberate use in an escalating crisis or war, in accordance with circumstances set out in nuclear doctrines, or due to inadvertent events—has grown in the Euro-Atlantic, mainly as a function of the resurgent strategic competition between the Russian Federation and the United States. Asymmetries in risk perceptions and developments in military capabilities are driving real and perceived insecurities. In this tense environment, (mis)interpretation of nuclear doctrines, coupled with poor risk analysis, could become self-fulfilling prophecies. This policy brief discusses sources of political volatility, outlines some of the risk drivers, and suggests measures in support of nuclear risk reduction in the Euro-Atlantic.
Better Informing a President’s Decision on Nuclear Use
Adam Mount and Pranay Vaddi | Lawfare
Over the past four years, many Americans have been surprised to learn that a U.S. president can order a nuclear strike at a moment’s notice without the approval of any other official. Though the president might be expected to consult with top military advisers, Congress or U.S. intelligence, there is no requirement that he or she do so. As long as the order can be certified as coming from the president, and as long as military officials involved in implementing the decision do not object to the order as violating the law of armed conflict, U.S. forces are expected to carry out the order.
Head of Nuclear Weapons Agency Unexpectedly Resigns
Aaron Mehta | Defense News
Lisa Gordon-Hagerty, the head of the National Nuclear Security Administration, has resigned her position effectively immediately, Defense News has learned. Gordon-Hagerty, who became the first woman to lead the NNSA in February 2018, sent her letter of resignation to the White House Friday, according to a pair of senior NNSA officials, speaking to Defense News on background. Hours later, the agency confirmed the resignation, announcing that William Bookless, currently principal deputy administrator, would take over as acting head of the agency. And the chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee, Sen. Jim Inhofe, R-Okla, has blasted the Secretary of Energy for what Inhofe described as forcing Gordon-Hagerty out of office.
Hibakusha Hope Biden Promotes Nuclear Disarmament
NHK
Survivors of the 1945 atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki have expressed hopes that U.S. president-elect Joe Biden will promote nuclear disarmament. Speaking to NHK on Sunday, the acting leader of the Hiroshima branch of the Japan Confederation of A- and H-bomb Sufferers Organizations, Mimaki Toshiyuki, offered congratulations on Biden's projected win. Mimaki said former US president Barack Obama visited the city shortly before the end of his term, but Biden will hopefully come early in his term to visit the Peace Memorial Museum and the Atomic Bomb Dome. He expressed the hope that Biden will take the initiative in persuading nuclear-armed countries to reduce their stockpiles, and lead efforts to abolish nuclear weapons.
Biden Team Considers Options on Iran Nuclear Deal
Katrina Manson and Michael Peel | Financial Times
On the virtual campaign trail, U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden promised to rein in tension with Iran with an approach he argued would be instantly distinguishable from Donald Trump’s: Mr Biden’s would be the “smart way”. The quip formed part of his argument that Mr Trump’s hardline approach — withdrawing from an Obama-era nuclear accord between Iran and global powers, piling on punitive sanctions and coming close to war — had momentously backfired, putting Tehran just “a few months” away from having enough nuclear material for a bomb. Mr Biden has said he will return to the multi-party 2015 deal that limited Iran’s nuclear programme, as long as Iran also returns to strict compliance, as a “starting point for follow-on negotiations”.
North Korea Watches Biden Victory With One Finger on the Missile Test Trigger
Simon Denyer | Washington Post
As world leaders congratulated Joe Biden on his election win over the weekend, a long-standing U.S. adversary remained conspicuously silent. On Monday, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un sent a congratulatory message to Cambodia’s king on the 67th anniversary of his country’s independence. But Kim’s state media has made no mention of the U.S. elections this past week, focusing instead Monday on reports about cement production and self-reliance. Pyongyang’s reticence isn’t surprising: The nuclear-armed, one-party state is not inclined to highlight political freedoms available in other countries. But there are reasons to believe the mood in Pyongyang is glum this week, and that Kim might be preparing his trigger finger for a new cycle of missile or nuclear testing.