Probabilistic Verification: A New Concept for Verifying the Denuclearization of North Korea
Mareena Robinson-Snowden | Arms Control Today
Although U.S.-North Korean talks have stalled, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has abided by an apparent moratorium on nuclear testing, keeping alive hopes that an agreement can be reached to denuclearize North Korea. Implementing such an agreement with North Korea, if one can be negotiated, would constitute an unprecedented challenge for the international community. Verifying such an agreement would require building a monitoring regime that goes well beyond traditional international safeguards and bilateral arms control approaches while accommodating legitimate North Korean concerns over intrusiveness, which would practically preclude “anytime, anywhere” inspections. Creativity will be needed to design a verification scheme to which the United States and North Korea could agree and that could be implemented in affordable and practical ways and that politicians would deem credible.
U.S. Intel Shows Cruise Missiles Fired at Saudi Oil Facility Came From Iran, Officials Say
Courtney Kube | NBC News
The attack on a major Saudi oil facility originated geographically from Iranian territory, with a series of low-altitude cruise missiles fired from at least one location in the western region of the country, according to two U.S. officials familiar with the latest intelligence. The intelligence assessment draws a more clear link between the attack and Iran, and it could worsen tensions between Washington and Tehran. U.S. officials are considering possible multilateral sanctions with allies against Iran as part of the response to the attacks on Aramco's main crude processing facility, which knocked out 5.7 million barrels of daily oil production for Saudi Arabia, or more than 5 percent of the world's daily crude production, analysts have said. The Department of Defense has advocated for restraint. But it has provided a briefing on military options to President Donald Trump, who over the weekend tweeted that the U.S. is "locked and loaded" and ready to respond, once it officially determined who was behind the attack.
Iran’s Khamenei Rejects Talks With United States
Parisa Hafezi | Reuters
Iran will never hold one-on-one talks with the United States but could engage in multilateral discussions if it returns to the 2015 deal on Iran’s nuclear program, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Tuesday, according to state television. U.S. President Donald Trump has said he could meet Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, possibly at the U.N. General Assembly in New York later this month. “Iranian officials, at any level, will never talk to American officials ... this is part of their policy to put pressure on Iran ... their policy of maximum pressure will fail,” state television quoted Khamenei as saying. “If America changes its behavior and returns to (Iran’s 2015) nuclear deal, then it can join multilateral talks between Iran and other parties to the deal,” Khamenei said. Tensions between Tehran and Washington have spiked following a weekend attack on major oil sites in Saudi Arabia that sent oil prices soaring and raised fears of a new Middle East conflict.
Japan and U.S. Top Envoys Vow to Cooperate on North Korea and Middle East
Japan Times
Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi and U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo agreed Monday to cooperate on North Korean nuclear issues and in dealing with the situation in the Middle East following an attack on Saudi Arabia’s major oil facilities. Motegi, who spoke with Pompeo on the phone for the first time since taking on the foreign minister portfolio last Wednesday, told reporters he also agreed to meet the secretary of state on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York later this month. Motegi told his U.S. counterpart that he is “100 percent” supportive of the country’s efforts to denuclearize North Korea. During the talks, Pompeo “reiterated the shared goal of final and fully verified denuclearization of North Korea” and affirmed U.S. commitment to keep working with Japan on a range of regional and global issues, the State Department said. On the Middle East, the two also spoke about “the need for all nations to ensure safe transit for all through the Strait of Hormuz,” it added.
Northrop Announces Suppliers for New ICBM. Boeing is Not on the List
Marcus Weisgerber | Defense One
Northrop Grumman has chosen the major subcontractors who will help bid for the U.S. Air Force’s next nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missiles. One notable absence: Boeing. It’s not a surprise. In July, Boeing said it would withdraw from the ICBM competition, whose conditions it called too favorable to Northrop. Then Boeing officials asked to join Northrop in a team bid, an overture that was rejected last week, they said. On Monday morning, Northrop released the list of subcontractors for its bid on the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent, or GBSD, program — now likely to be the only bid the Air Force gets when the deadline arrives in December. On Friday, Boeing said Northrop had rejected its calls to team up. “In our discussions to date, Northrop Grumman has expressed that they are not interested in partnering with Boeing to form a best-of-industry GBSD team,” the company said in an emailed statement.
Global Nuclear Threat ‘Highest Since Cuban Missile Crisis’
Henry Ridgwell | Voice of America
World leaders meeting at the United Nations General Assembly, which begins Tuesday in New York, must make nuclear arms control a priority, according to a group of more than 100 political, military and diplomatic figures from Europe and Russia. They have issued a joint statement warning that the risks of nuclear accident, misjudgment or miscalculation have not been higher since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. Their statement follows the formal termination last month of the Intermediate Nuclear Forces, or INF, Treaty between the United States and Russia. Washington had accused Moscow of breaching the treaty and argued that the agreement was out of date, as it should include other nuclear-armed states like China. As the risks increase, the United Nations must take the lead in global arms control, says former British Defense Secretary Des Browne, who is now chairman of the European Leadership Network, which coordinated the statement.