Nicole Grajewski | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
After months of anticipation, on November 18, the Kremlin unveiled its latest nuclear doctrine, outlining the conditions under which it might resort to nuclear weapons use. Last updated in 2020, the doctrine appears to lower the threshold for nuclear use by introducing sovereignty-based conditions beyond the previous requirement of existential threat to the state. This update follows a pattern common among nuclear powers in creating ambiguity around nuclear use conditions, a long-standing feature of nuclear deterrence. What distinguishes Russia’s approach is its repeated nuclear saber-rattling and efforts to sow transatlantic divisions through intimidation.
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Mark Hibbs | Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament
The safeguards system of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) might inform a future verification regime for global nuclear disarmament that emphasizes irreversibility. This paper explores aspects of a verification mechanism for nuclear disarmament where the IAEA’s experience may be relevant: scope and purpose of verification; starting point and termination of safeguards; verification processes; conclusion-drawing; and compliance.
Patrick Wintour | The Guardian
Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Majid Takht-Ravanchi, will meet his European counterparts in Geneva on Friday after the collapse of a deal last week under which Iran would have limited its uranium enrichment to 60% purity, just below the threshold to make nuclear weapons. The offer was regarded by Iran as a first step to rebuilding confidence between it and the west over what it insists is its civilian nuclear programme. There are growing fears that wider tensions in the Middle East could result in Tehran redoubling efforts to acquire a nuclear weapon and trying to declare it necessary for its national self-defence.
HYUNG-JIN KIM and KIM TONG-HYUNG | Associated Press
Russia has supplied air defense missile systems to North Korea in exchange for sending its troops to support Russia’s war efforts against Ukraine, a top South Korean official said Friday. The U.S., South Korea and Ukraine say North Korea sent more than 10,000 troops to Russia in October, some of whom have recently begun engaging in combat on the front lines. North Korea’s troop deployment threatens to escalate the war, and what Russia could give to the North in return has been a source of rampant international speculation. The most alarming development for South Korea and the U.S. would be Russia transferring sophisticated weapons technology that can enhance North Korea’s nuclear-capable missiles targeting its rivals.
Reuters
Discussion in the West about arming Ukraine with nuclear weapons is "absolutely irresponsible", Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday, in response to a report in the New York Times citing unidentified officials who suggested such a possibility. The New York Times reported last week that some unidentified Western officials had suggested U.S. President Joe Biden could give Ukraine nuclear weapons before he leaves office…Asked about the report, Peskov told reporters: "These are absolutely irresponsible arguments of people who have a poor understanding of reality and who do not feel a shred of responsibility when making such statements. We also note that all of these statements are anonymous."
Geoff Wilson | Stimson Center
The United States is on track to spend the equivalent of more than two Manhattan projects a year in one of the most expensive arms races in history. Unfortunately, all the systems currently being developed are already significantly over budget and behind schedule – and several might even be actively eroding America’s national security by destabilizing global strategic stability and legitimizing the idea of “limited” nuclear use.