Edition

Proliferation News 1/28/25

IN THIS ISSUE: Will Iran and Russia’s Growing Partnership Go Nuclear?, Images Show China Building Huge Fusion Research Facility, Analysts Say, Ministers Urged to Clarify Nuclear Deployment, US Nuclear Fusion Start-up Backed by Sam Altman and Peter Thiel Secures $425mn, Trump Hints at New Talks With Kim Jong-un. It Might Be Harder This Time, Scenarios for the Future of U.S.-Russia Strategic Stability and Arms Control

Published on January 28, 2025

Nicole Grajewski and Or Rabinowitz | Foreign Affairs

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, along with its response to Hamas’s October 7 attacks in Israel, upset this balance, as Moscow’s growing dependence on Iranian military technology drove it closer to Tehran. A decade after Soleimani’s visit, Iran and Russia have forged unprecedented ties, strengthened by their shared isolation from the West and by military cooperation in Ukraine. Russia, once an architect of the deal to restrict Iran’s nuclear program, has evolved into a potential enabler of Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.

Gerry Doyle | Reuters 

China appears to be building a large laser-ignited fusion research centre in the southwestern city of Mianyang, experts at two analytical organisations say, a development that could aid nuclear weapons design and work exploring power generation. Satellite photos show four outlying "arms" that will house laser bays, and a central experiment bay that will hold a target chamber containing hydrogen isotopes the powerful lasers will fuse together, producing energy, said Decker Eveleth, a researcher at U.S.-based independent research organisation CNA Corp.

Matt Precey | BBC

The government is facing fresh demands to disclose whether US nuclear weapons are on British soil. It comes as a senior American official confirmed the deployment of a new generation of bombs had been completed. The Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament (CND) has written to the prime minister and the defence secretary to ask whether RAF Lakenheath in Suffolk is housing B61-12 munitions. The UK and Nato have a long-standing policy to neither confirm nor deny the presence of nuclear weapons at a given location.

Malcolm Moore | Financial Times

A US start-up whose backers include tech billionaires Sam Altman and Peter Thiel has raised $425mn to keep it on track to achieve its target of producing electricity from nuclear fusion in 2028. Helion has the most ambitious timeline among start-ups racing to develop nuclear fusion, a long sought-after technology that combines hydrogen atoms to form helium atoms and release a significant amount of energy.

Choe Sang-Hun | New York Times

“He liked me and I got along with him,” Mr. Trump said during an interview with the Fox News host Sean Hannity, after saying that he would reach out to Mr. Kim again in his second term. “He is not a religious zealot. He happens to be a smart guy.” Mr. Trump’s comments, aired on Thursday night, were the first time he has expressed an intent to reopen diplomacy with Mr. Kim since taking office on Monday. During his first term, Mr. Trump and Mr. Kim made history when they held the first summit between their nations, which remain technically at war. But their relationship petered out after their three high-profile meetings failed to yield any progress.

Samuel Charap, John J. Drennan, Julia Masterson | Rand

This paper explores the possibilities for future arms control between the United States and Russia. The findings are based on a series of discussions involving nongovernmental experts from the two countries. These experts sought to develop a shared understanding of the ways in which the bilateral strategic environment could evolve over the coming five to ten years. They then identified possible steps the United States and Russia could take to strengthen stability and reduce the risk of escalation. Although the participants acknowledged that there are profound disagreements between their governments, they deliberately focused on the future of the bilateral strategic relationship and possible arms control measures in that future context — not on the present impasse.


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