Barak Ravid | Axios
White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan presented President Biden with options for a potential U.S. attack on Iran's nuclear facilities if the Iranians move towards a nuclear weapon before Jan. 20, in a meeting several weeks ago that remained secret until now, three sources with knowledge of the issue tell Axios.
Helen Regan, Alex Stambaugh, Gawon Bae and Mariya Knight | CNN
Russia may be close to sharing advanced satellite technology with North Korea after the isolated nation supplied troops to help bolster Moscow’s war in Ukraine, United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned Monday. “The DPRK is already receiving Russian military equipment and training. Now, we have reason to believe that Moscow intends to share advance space and satellite technology with Pyongyang,” Blinken said from Seoul, using North Korea’s official name.
Hyonhee Shin | Reuters
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un oversaw a successful test of a new intermediate-range hypersonic ballistic missile (IRBM) on Monday, state media KCNA said on Tuesday, pledging to accelerate the country's nuclear and missile capabilities.It was North Korea's first missile launch since Nov. 5, and coincided with a visit to South Korea by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in which he pledged bilateral and trilateral cooperation, including with Japan, to respond to Pyongyang's growing military threats.
Samy Adghirni | Bloomberg
French President Emmanuel Macron warned that Iran’s nuclear program is
on a potentially irreversible course, nearing a point of no return. “The acceleration of [Iran’s] nuclear program is leading us very close to the breaking point,” Macron said during a speech to French ambassadors in Paris on Monday. The country has sufficient material to fuel a handful of warheads, should its government take the political decision to move toward nuclear weapons.
Oriana Skylar Mastro | The Economist
In 2016, just before moving into the White House for the first time, Donald Trump set the tone for an ambitious agenda to “modernise and rebuild” America’s nuclear arsenal. In his second term the stakes will be higher, and the pressing question is not if but by how much the Trump administration will update America’s nuclear deterrent. The smart move would be to aim for fewer warheads, not more.
Ulrich Kühn | Defense and Security Analysis
Back in the fall of 2022, parts of the US administration assessed a heightened risk of Russian nuclear use in the Ukraine War. Despite this assessment, nuclear weapons were not used. Why did Russia not use nuclear weapons during the Fall Crisis of 2022? This essay offers a systematic review of the most influential rationalist, normative, and institutionalist theories of non-use and discusses whether they can explain the practices seen throughout 2022 in the war. It concludes that in lieu of verifiable evidence, currently all major theories of non-use can to some degree explain these practices, with theories centred on nuclear deterrence and an international taboo norm sticking out. Using the case study at hand, a multicausal model of nuclear non-use, with an emphasis on nuclear use prevention, will be presented as a possible blueprint for dealing with future nuclear crises.