Edition

Proliferation News 3/18/25

IN THIS ISSUE: DOGE Cuts Reach Key Nuclear Scientists, Bomb Engineers and Safety Experts, Duda: US nuclear weapons in Poland would be 'deterrent' for Russia, Trump suggests Ukraine’s largest nuclear plant is on the line in talks with Putin. What’s next for Zaporizhzhia?, How the U.S. is losing ground to China in nuclear fusion, as AI power needs surge, Japan eyes deploying long-range missiles on Kyushu island, Chinese Nuclear Weapons, 2025

Published on March 18, 2025

Sharon LaFraniere, Minho Kim and Julie Tate | The New York Times

Firings and buyouts hit the top-secret National Nuclear Security Administration amid a major effort to upgrade America’s nuclear arsenal. Critics say it shows the consequences of heedlessly cutting the federal work force… “The federal oversight is vital,” said Corey Hinderstein, the agency’s deputy administrator for nonproliferation under President Joseph R. Biden Jr. “Do you have any construction projects at your house? You wouldn’t just say to the contractor: ‘I want something like this room. Have fun.’”

Jeremy Bowen | BBC

The president of Poland, Andrzej Duda, has repeated his call for the US to base nuclear weapons on Polish soil. In the presidential palace in Warsaw, he told me that it would make Poland stronger and safer as it faces Russia. Viewed from Poland, President Putin's Russia is a clear and a present danger... Positioning US nuclear weapons in Poland would be viewed by President Putin as a provocation. But President Duda views the proposal as a defensive measure to strengthen deterrence.

Lauren Kent | CNN

The fate of the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant has been a concern since Moscow’s forces stormed the facility in March 2022. The UN’s nuclear watchdog has repeatedly warned about the security dangers facing the plant – the largest nuclear power station in Europe – which sits on the front line of Russia’s invasion. Now, the Zaporizhzhia plant is expected to be part of negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, Trump administration officials said this week.

Katie Tarasov | CNBC

China and the U.S. are in a race to create the first grid-scale nuclear fusion energy. After decades of U.S. leadership, China is catching up by spending twice as much and building projects at record speed. Often called the holy grail of clean energy, nuclear fusion creates four times more energy per kilogram of fuel than traditional nuclear fission and four million times more than burning coal, with no greenhouse gasses or long-term radioactive waste. If all goes to plan, it will be at least a $1 trillion market by 2050, according to Ignition Research.

Kyodo News

Japan is considering deploying long-range missiles on the southwestern island of Kyushu as part of the country's efforts to acquire "counterstrike capabilities" to hit enemy targets in the event of an emergency, government sources said Saturday. The deployment, expected to commence at the end of the next fiscal year in March 2026, is aimed at bolstering the security of the country's southwestern Nansei island chain, strategically important for its proximity to Taiwan, amid growing fears the self-ruled democratic island may be invaded by China.

Hans M. Kristensen, Matt Korda, Eliana Johns and Mackenzie Knight | Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

The modernization of China’s nuclear arsenal has both accelerated and expanded in recent years. In this issue of the Nuclear Notebook, we estimate that China now possesses approximately 600 nuclear warheads, with more in production to arm future delivery systems. China is believed to have the fastest-growing nuclear arsenal among the nine nuclear-armed states; it is the only Party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons that is significantly increasing its nuclear arsenal.

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