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Proliferation News 3/20/25

IN THIS ISSUE: Proceed with Caution: The Price of Neglecting Safety for SMRs, Zelensky says he and Trump discussed US help in restoring Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, Scoop: Trump's letter to Iran included 2-month deadline for new nuclear deal, Macron speeds up Rafale warplane orders as France invests in nuclear deterrence, Why Europe cannot rely on French nuclear umbrella alone, The Art of a New Iranian Nuclear Deal in 2025

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Published on March 20, 2025

Proliferation News

Proliferation News is a biweekly newsletter highlighting the latest analysis and trends in the nuclear policy community.

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Proceed with Caution: The Price of Neglecting Safety for SMRs

Dan Zhukov and Lindsay Rand | The National Interest

Small modular reactors (SMRs) seem to be the rising star of the nuclear energy industry... Yet, even amidst domestic and international pressures, American policymakers and industry leaders should resist the urge to recklessly speed up SMR deployment. When it comes to nuclear energy, the cost of “moving fast and breaking things” is too high. Instead, embracing the principles of nuclear safety, security, and safeguards will ensure that SMRs do not exacerbate the risks of nuclear catastrophes, contamination, and proliferation.

Zelensky says he and Trump discussed US help in restoring Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant

Tim Zadorozhnyy | The Kyiv Independent

President Volodymyr Zelensky said on March 19 that he had discussed with U.S. President Donald Trump the possibility of U.S. assistance in restoring the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, the largest nuclear facility in Europe, currently under Russian occupation… During the phone call, Trump suggested to Zelensky that the U.S. could be "very helpful in running the plants with its electricity and utility expertise" and that "American ownership of those plants would be the best protection," the White House said, without naming specific facilities.

Scoop: Trump's letter to Iran included 2-month deadline for new nuclear deal

Barak Ravid | Axios

President Trump's letter to Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei included a two-month deadline for reaching a new nuclear deal, one U.S. official and two sources briefed on the letter told Axios… It isn't clear whether the two-month clock begins from the time the letter was delivered or from when negotiations start. But if Iran rejects Trump's outreach and doesn't negotiate, the chances of U.S. or Israeli military action against Iran's nuclear facilities would dramatically increase.

Macron speeds up Rafale warplane orders as France invests in nuclear deterrence

Michel Rose | Reuters

President Emmanuel Macron said France would order additional Rafale warplanes in the coming years and invest nearly 1.5 billion euros ($1.6 billion) into one of its air bases to equip its squadrons with the latest nuclear missile technology. Jolted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and U.S. President Donald Trump's more confrontational stance towards traditional Western allies, European countries are hiking defence spending and seeking to reduce dependence on the United States.

Why Europe cannot rely on French nuclear umbrella alone

Leila Abboud, Ben Hall and John Paul Rathbone | Financial Times

French President Emmanuel Macron has invited fellow European leaders to discuss whether — and how — his country’s nuclear arsenal could be used as a deterrent against future Russian aggression. But his allies may not like the limitations he may choose to keep on the force de frappe… “There was never any request from a European country for such a thing since none ever wanted to question the US support,” said Hubert Védrine, a former French foreign minister who worked on his country’s nuclear doctrine. “The debate now starting takes us into uncharted territory and it will be very hard to resolve.”

The Art of a New Iranian Nuclear Deal in 2025

Arms Control Association

The long-running Iranian nuclear crisis is reaching a tipping point. Since his re-election in November, U.S. President Donald Trump has consistently expressed support for reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran, but his administration’s rhetoric toward Tehran sends mixed signals about U.S. diplomatic intentions. The lack of clarity around U.S. objectives for an agreement, combined with threats to use military force against Iran over both regional and nuclear issues, could stymie diplomatic efforts before talks begin and strengthen factions in Tehran that oppose negotiating with the United States.

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

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