Edition

Proliferation News 4/10/25

IN THIS ISSUE: Bargaining Short of the Bomb: A Strategy for Preventing Iranian NPT Withdrawal, Years of Distrust Hang Over US and Iran as Their Negotiators Head to Oman, Exclusive: AUKUS nuclear submarine sale under scrutiny as Trump tariffs rattle Australia, Nuclear Testing Not Advised, Trump’s Nominee Says in Senate Hearing, North Korean leader's sister denounces denuclearization calls, Treasury Department hits Iran with new sanctions targeting its nuclear program ahead of Oman talks

Published on April 10, 2025

Jamie Kwong | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Iran is running out of leverage. Fundamentally, Tehran seeks leverage to reduce crippling economic and, increasingly, strategic pressure. It wants relief from international and unilateral sanctions that have severely restricted its economic activities, foreclosed investment opportunities, and stalled Iranian growth and development. And it needs time and space to recover from a string of strategic blows that have significantly diminished its standing and influence in the region. These aims, however, cannot be achieved without settling the nuclear issue.

Eric Martin, Golnar Motevalli, and Jonathan Tirone | Bloomberg

Officials from the US and Iran are set to meet Saturday in Oman for the highest-level talks on the Islamic Republic’s advancing nuclear program in more than two years, a sign of Tehran’s eagerness for sanctions relief and to avoid the crippling military attack that President Donald Trump has threatened. Each side’s distrust of the other runs deep, even complicating the path to having their emissaries sit down together: Trump has emphatically insisted Saturday’s talks between the two countries will be “direct,” while Iranian officials just as assertively maintain they’ll be “indirect.”

Kirsty Needham | Reuters

The sale of nuclear-powered submarines to Australia under the AUKUS treaty faces new doubts as U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs take hold, and amid concern in Washington that providing the subs to Canberra may reduce deterrence to China. Whether the United States can boost submarine production to meet U.S. Navy targets is key to whether Australia can buy three Virginia-class submarines starting in 2032, Defence Minister Richard Marles said last month, after talks with his U.S. counterpart, Pete Hegseth.

William J. Broad | The New York Times

Brandon Williams, President Trump’s pick to become the keeper of the nation’s nuclear arsenal, testified on Tuesday that he would not recommend that Mr. Trump restart explosive testing of the deadly weapons. His statement, during a confirmation hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee, was unexpected. Other advisers to the administration had proposed that the president resume the test detonations for the sake of national security.

Kim Tong-Hyung | ABC News

The powerful sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on Wednesday mocked Washington and its Asian allies for what she called their “daydream” of denuclearizing the North, insisting that the country will never give up its nuclear weapons program. The statement by Kim Yo Jong, one of the country's top foreign policy officials, was in response to a meeting last week between the top diplomats of the United States, South Korea and Japan where they reaffirmed their commitment to push for the North’s denuclearization.

The Associated Press

The U.S Treasury Department on Wednesday issued new sanctions targeting Iran’s nuclear program, just days before senior American and Iranian officials are expected to hold talks in the Middle East sultanate of Oman. Five entities and one person based in Iran are cited in the new sanctions for their support of Iran’s nuclear program. The designated groups include the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran and subordinates Iran Centrifuge Technology Company, Thorium Power Company, Pars Reactors Construction and Development Company and Azarab Industries Co.

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.