TOBY DALTON AND ARIEL LEVITE | War on the Rocks
Iran is overtly inching closer to the possession of nuclear weapons, but thus far has refrained from crossing the line. Crucially, Iranian officials are already acting and speaking as if Iran has a threshold nuclear capability, claiming that they possess all the needed technical elements for nuclear weapons. Moreover, they are threatening to acquire nuclear weapons if attacked and expressing satisfaction at the deterrent effect they have already achieved. Tehran’s behavior raises acute (but not unprecedented) problems for the United States and the world: how to deal with a state that has succeeded in acquiring the capability to quickly produce nuclear weapons and how to prevent it from going all the way. An effective strategy for dealing with Iran should also address the specific problem of its leveraging a threshold nuclear capability to enable other provocative behavior.
Laurence Norman | The Wall Street Journal
The Biden administration is pressing European allies to back off plans to rebuke Iran for advances in its nuclear program, even as it expands its stockpile of near-weapons-grade fissile material to a record level, according to diplomats involved in discussions. The U.S. is arguing against an effort by Britain and France to censure Iran at the International Atomic Energy Agency’s member-state board in early June, the diplomats said. The U.S. has pressed a number of other countries to abstain in a censure vote, saying that is what Washington will do, they said.
JOSEPH TREVITHICK | The War Zone
Satellite imagery confirms a Russian strategic early warning radar site in the southwestern end of the country was substantially damaged in a reported Ukrainian drone attack earlier this week. This looks to be a first-of-its-kind attack on a site linked to Russia's general strategic defense. As such, it points to a new and worrisome dimension to the conflict, especially when it comes to the potential use of nuclear weapons.
Dasl Yoon | The Wall Street Journal
North Korea suffered another fireball of failure on Monday, botching its third spy-satellite launch in just a year, but the latest misstep revealed a key ambition for one of Kim Jong Un’s marquee military projects. Pyongyang seems intent on developing a higher-thrust engine that is powerful enough to carry multiple satellites on a single rocket, weapons analysts say. The Kim regime’s unsuccessful first go-round with advanced rocket-propellant technology shows how the country still has sizable technological gaps, despite major weapons advances elsewhere and presumed assistance from Russia.
Iran Further Increases its Stockpile of Uranium Enriched to Near Weapons-grade Levels, Watchdog Says
STEPHANIE LIECHTENSTEIN | Associated Press
Iran has further increased its stockpile of uranium enriched to near weapons-grade levels, according to a confidential report on Monday by the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, the latest in Tehran’s attempts to steadily exert pressure on the international community…The report, seen by The Associated Press, said that as of May 11, Iran has 142.1 kilograms (313.2 pounds) of uranium enriched up to 60% — an increase of 20.6 kilograms (45.4 pounds) since the last report by the U.N. watchdog in February. Uranium enriched at 60% purity is just a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels of 90%.
JOHN GRADY | USNI News
The questions on how to modify Virginia-class attack submarines to install nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missiles and how much the changeover would cost are not easily answered, the Navy’s director of strategic systems programs told a key Senate panel this week. Vice Adm. Johnny Wolfe on Wednesday, “we’ve started to look at that” and “we’ve asked for flexibility.” He added, “it would be premature to give a cost estimate of the modification.” Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) wondered if the modification meant “we would be giving up something we really need” – torpedoes against a larger navy for a weapon meant for deterrence. He also questioned the cost to other strategic weapon programs if the project moves forward.