Edition

Proliferation News 5/6/25

IN THIS ISSUE: How Trump’s Turn Toward Putin Could Shake Up Asia, Is Europe Moving to an Independent Nuclear Deterrent?, How Trump blindsided Netanyahu with his Iran nuclear gamble, Russia’s Putin says he hopes there will be no need to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, Trump threatens sanctions against buyers of Iranian oil after US-Iran nuclear talks are postponed, Iran says its stance on nuclear talks with US remains constant

Published on May 6, 2025

Toby Dalton | Arms Control Today

The about-face on Russia by U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration, amplified by its sharp criticism of the United States’ European allies and apparent abandonment of Ukraine, is scrambling the security order in Europe. Yet, the broader significance of Trump’s embrace of Russian President Vladimir Putin and shift away from enduring interest-based alliances is that these moves also could portend considerable disruption in Asia. Some of that disruption might be positive, for example if it leads to arms control talks with China or a nuclear restraint agreement with North Korea. Yet, it also could drive South Korea or Japan to acquire nuclear weapons if they feel abandoned by the United States.

Ulrich Kühn | Arms Control Today

Europe is in turmoil… Not since the Cold War years have Europeans felt so threatened. Many wonder whether Europe and the United States are still allies… All this is the result of two men’s ambitions. The one sitting in the Kremlin, Russian President Vladimir Putin, is waging the bloodiest land war on European soil since the guns of World War II fell silent. The other one, U.S. President Donald Trump, re-entered the White House having pledged to end Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine “within 24 hours.”

Samia Nakhoul, Humeyra Pamuk and Parisa Hafezi | Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump blindsided Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last month with a gamble on immediately opening negotiations with Iran. Now, the success of those talks hinges on winning a handful of key concessions to stop the Islamic Republic developing a nuclear bomb, eight sources said. The pivot to negotiations with Iran in April was a shock for Netanyahu, who had flown to Washington seeking Trump's backing for military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities and learned less than 24 hours before a joint White House press event that U.S. talks with Iran were starting within days, four sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

Reuters | CNN World

President Vladimir Putin said in remarks published on Sunday that Russia had sufficient strength and resources to take the war in Ukraine to its logical conclusion, though he hoped that there would be no need to use nuclear weapons. Putin ordered thousands of Russian troops into Ukraine in February 2022, triggering Europe’s biggest ground conflict since World War II and the largest confrontation between Moscow and the West since the depths of the Cold War.

Jon Gambrell | AP News

President Donald Trump on Thursday threatened sanctions on anyone who buys Iranian oil, a warning that came after planned talks over Tehran’s rapidly advancing nuclear program were postponed. Trump wrote on social media, “All purchases of Iranian Oil, or Petrochemical products, must stop, NOW!” He said any country or person who buys those products from Iran will not be able to do business with the United States “in any way, shape, or form.”

Reuters

Iran remains committed to diplomacy with the United States, the government said on Monday, after a fourth round of nuclear talks with Washington due in Rome on May 3 was postponed for "logistical reasons". "We have announced our commitment to continuing the path of dialogue and diplomacy, and we have shown our full readiness by participating in several rounds of negotiations," Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said. The spokesperson added that Tehran was flexible regarding the timing of talks and was waiting for details from mediator Oman regarding the next round of negotiations with the U.S.

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