Edition

Proliferation News 6/11/24

IN THIS ISSUE: The Forgotten World War III Scare of 1980, "Adapting the U.S. Approach to Arms Control and Nonproliferation to a New Era", Europeans Detail Iran's Nuclear Violations in Diplomatic Gambit, Putin Says he Sees no Threat Warranting Use of Nuclear Arms but Warns Russia Could Arm Western Foes, Third Meeting of Nuclear Consultative Group Enhances U.S., South Korea Alliance, Deterrence, Russia Begins Second Stage of Tactical Nuclear Weapon Drills with Belarus

Published on June 11, 2024

James M Acton and Nicole Grajewski | Foreign Policy 

Although this war scare was just that—a scare—it could have turned into something more…The possibility of escalation should remind decision-makers that even when rivals’ interests clash in real and serious ways, assuming the worst about the other’s intentions won’t necessarily serve their state’s interests. On the contrary, it can exacerbate tensions and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Arms Control Association

“Let me be clear—Absent a change in the trajectory of adversary arsenals, we may reach a point in the coming years where an increase from current deployed numbers is required—And we need to be fully prepared to execute if the President makes that decision—if he makes that decision.” 

Michelle Nichols, Arshad Mohammed and John Irish | Reuters 

Three European powers have written to the U.N. Security Council detailing Iran's violations of its 2015 nuclear deal, a step diplomats said on Thursday aimed to pressure Tehran to resolve the issue diplomatically and to avoid reimposing U.N. sanctions. The British, French and German letter did not explicitly threaten to "snap back" United Nations sanctions but it noted that U.N. Security Council Resolution 2231, which enshrined the nuclear deal and provided that power, expires on Oct. 18, 2025.

Associated Press

President Vladimir Putin said Friday that he sees no current threat to Russia’s sovereignty that would warrant the use of nuclear weapons but again warned that Moscow could send arms to countries or groups to strike Western targets. Speaking at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Putin said use of nuclear weapons is only possible in “exceptional cases” and that he does not believe “such a case has arisen.” The Russian leader has repeatedly raised the specter of a nuclear attack since he sent troops into Ukraine in 2022.

US Department of Defense 

U.S. and South Korean officials today convened the third meeting of the Nuclear Consultative Group, where among other things, participants planned greater cooperation between the two nations and enhanced nuclear deterrence on the Korean Peninsula. "Across the board, we're making progress in the Nuclear Consultative Group," said Richard C. Johnson, deputy assistant secretary of defense for nuclear and countering weapons of mass destruction policy. "Just the establishment of that group, I think, was very important to demonstrate how we are elevating the discussion that we're having on nuclear deterrence issues, but the work that we're doing is really key. Whether that's from information sharing to joint planning and execution."

Guy Faulconbridge | Reuters 

Russia said on Tuesday its troops had started the second stage of drills to practise the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons alongside Belarusian troops after what Moscow said were threats from Western powers…In the first stage of the drills, Russian troops trained how to arm and deploy Iskander missiles, while the air force trained how to arm Kinzhal hypersonic missiles. The second stage, announced on Tuesday, involved working out joint training of Russian and Belarusian units "for the combat use of non-strategic nuclear weapons", the defence ministry said.

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.