Edition

Proliferation News 6/13/24

IN THIS ISSUE: Out of the Shadows: The Implications of Iran’s Recent Duel With Israel, NATO Chief Says the Alliance is Adapting its Nuclear Arsenal to Security Threats, What to Make of ‘Milestone’ US-ROK Nuke Guidelines on Deterring North Korea, Russia, Belarus Launch a Second Stage of Drills to Train Troops in Tactical Nuclear Weapons, Iran Expanding Enrichment Capacity After IAEA Resolution, Diplomats Say, Why the West Should Take Russia’s Nuclear Threats More Seriously

Published on June 13, 2024

Arms Control Association

Arms Control Today gathered three experts on May 24 to discuss the implications of the Iranian-Israeli faceoff for the region. Nicole Grajewski is a fellow with the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Sina Toossi is a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, and Ali Vaez is senior adviser at the International Crisis Group and director of the group’s Iran Project. This transcript has been edited for clarity and length.

Sabine Siebold | Reuters

In a rare reference to the Western nuclear arsenal, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg on Wednesday highlighted the alliance's efforts to adapt its capabilities to current security threats, taking note of Russia latest nuclear rhetoric and drills. Talking to reporters before a two-day NATO defence ministers' meeting in Brussels that will include a gathering of the alliance's nuclear planning group, he called nuclear weapons NATO's "ultimate security guarantee" and a means to preserve peace.

Jeongmin Kim | NK News

One expert told NK News that South Korea’s efforts to share more about its conventional weapons capabilities, such as through the first-ever joint visit to the ROK missile command, represent a key step toward integrating the allies’ conventional and nuclear weapons — a main point of discussion at the third NCG meeting. But others expressed concern that Seoul remains fixated on using nuclear assets against North Korean threats, while highlighting the escalation risks that come with blending conventional and nuclear forces.

Associated Press

Russia and its ally Belarus on Tuesday launched a second stage of drills intended to train their troops in tactical nuclear weapons, part of the Kremlin’s efforts to discourage the West from ramping up support for Ukraine…During the second stage of the drills that began Tuesday, Russian and Belarusian troops will undergo joint training in non-strategic nuclear weapons used in combat, the Defense Ministry said. It noted that the exercise is aimed at maintaining readiness of personnel and equipment to ensure “sovereignty and territorial integrity” of the alliance of Russia and Belarus.

Francois Murphy and John Irish | Reuters

Iran is responding to last week's U.N. nuclear watchdog board resolution against it by expanding its uranium-enrichment capacity at two underground sites, but the escalation is not as big as many had feared, diplomats said on Wednesday…This time it plans to install more cascades, or clusters, of centrifuges, the machines that enrich uranium, at both its underground enrichment sites, five diplomats said. IAEA inspectors observing Iran's progress plan to issue a report to member states on Thursday, three of the diplomats said.

Giles David Arceneaux | Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

The outright dismissal of Russia’s nuclear threats has an intuitive appeal. Nuclear saber-rattling has endured as a persistent but seemingly trivial feature of Russian policy, as evidenced by the lack of nuclear weapons use despite continued and expanding Western support for Ukraine. But whether or not Russia will use nuclear weapons is the wrong way to frame the question; it mischaracterizes the nature and purpose of Russian threats. 


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