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Proliferation News 6/17/25

IN THIS ISSUE: The United States Should Stay Out of the Israel-Iran War, Trump considers strike on Iran ahead of crucial Situation Room meeting, Explainer: How much damage have Israeli strikes caused to Iran's nuclear programme?, Israel says Iran was racing toward a nuclear weapon. US intel says it was years away, How Trump Shifted on Iran Under Pressure From Israel, Iran says parliament is preparing bill to leave nuclear non-proliferation treaty, North Korea refusing to accept Trump letter aimed at restarting dialogue: Source, Don’t Give Up on Diplomacy With Iran

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Published on June 17, 2025

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The United States Should Stay Out of the Israel-Iran War

James Acton | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Iran’s clandestine nuclear program was revealed in August 2002 with the news that it was constructing an enrichment facility at Natanz. Early this morning, Israel attacked that site—along with other Iranian nuclear facilities, leaders and scientists, and military installations. Israel’s actions are likely to ensure that over twenty years of effort to prevent Iran from acquiring the bomb will fail. At this point, the United States’ best move is to stay out of both the immediate war and the prolonged military conflict it will likely spark.

Trump considers strike on Iran ahead of crucial Situation Room meeting

Barak Ravid and Dave Lawler | Axios

President Trump will meet with his national security team in the White House Situation Room at 1pm on Tuesday to make decisions about U.S. policy towards the war between Israel and Iran, three U.S. officials tell Axios. The U.S. officials said Trump is seriously considering joining the war and launching a U.S. strike against Iran's nuclear facilities, especially its underground uranium enrichment facility in Fordow.

Explainer: How much damage have Israeli strikes caused to Iran's nuclear programme?

Francois Murphy | Reuters

Israel has carried out wide-ranging military strikes on Iran, hitting sites including some of its most important nuclear facilities. Below is a summary of what is known about the damage inflicted on Iran's nuclear programme, incorporating data from the last quarterly report by the U.N. nuclear watchdog on May 31.

Israel says Iran was racing toward a nuclear weapon. US intel says it was years away

Katie Bo Lillis and Zachary Cohen | CNN

When Israel launched its series of strikes against Iran last week, it also issued a number of dire warnings about the country’s nuclear program, suggesting Iran was fast approaching a point of no return in its quest to obtain nuclear weapons and that the strikes were necessary to preempt that outcome. But US intelligence assessments had reached a different conclusion – not only was Iran not actively pursuing a nuclear weapon, it was also up to three years away from being able to produce and deliver one to a target of its choosing, according to four people familiar with the assessment.

How Trump Shifted on Iran Under Pressure From Israel

Jonathan Swan, Maggie Haberman, Mark Mazzetti, and Ronen Bergman | The New York Times

Five days after Israel launched its attack, Mr. Trump’s posture continues to gyrate. The administration at first distanced itself from the strikes, then grew more publicly supportive as Israel’s initial military success became evident. Now Mr. Trump is seriously considering sending American aircraft in to help refuel Israeli combat jets and to try to take out Iran’s deep-underground nuclear site at Fordo with 30,000-pound bombs — a step that would mark a stunning turnabout from his opposition just two months ago to any military action while there was still a chance of a diplomatic solution.

Iran says parliament is preparing bill to leave nuclear non-proliferation treaty

Reuters

Iranian parliamentarians are preparing a bill that could push Tehran toward exiting the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the foreign ministry said on Monday, while reiterating Tehran's official stance against developing nuclear weapons. "In light of recent developments, we will take an appropriate decision. Government has to enforce parliament bills but such a proposal is just being prepared and we will coordinate in the later stages with parliament," the ministry's spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said, when asked at a press conference about Tehran potentially leaving the NPT.

North Korea refusing to accept Trump letter aimed at restarting dialogue: Source

Chad O’Carroll | NK News

North Korean diplomats in New York have refused to accept a letter from U.S. President Donald Trump aimed at reopening communication channels between Washington and Pyongyang, an informed high-level source told NK News. Trump drafted the letter to DPRK leader Kim Jong Un with the goal of restarting the dialogue that they had across three summits during his first term, according to the informed source, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to sensitivities around the outreach.

Don’t Give Up on Diplomacy With Iran

Ali Vaez | Foreign Affairs

On June 13, Israel initiated a series of airstrikes and covert operations against Iranian nuclear sites and military officials. Dubbed Operation Rising Lion, this sophisticated and multilayered campaign followed days of speculation about an impending assault. So far, the attacks have damaged Iran’s Natanz and Isfahan nuclear facilities and killed a number of Iranian scientists. They have also claimed the lives of scores of civilians and injured dozens more, razed apartment buildings, and blown up parts of the country’s energy infrastructure. Israelis, meanwhile, have found themselves rushing to shelters as their own cities come under attack.

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

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