Edition

Proliferation News 6/6/24

IN THIS ISSUE: The United States Should Not Further Loosen Its Prohibition on Ukraine’s Using U.S.-Supplied Weapons to Strike Russia , U.N. Atomic Agency Censures Iran Over Nuclear Actions Despite Retaliation Threat, Putin Says Russia Could Deploy Missiles in Striking Distance of the West, China: US Nuclear Weapons in South Korea Would Undermine its Security, Despite the Risks, Russia Continues to Use Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant as a Source of Leverage, Why it May Take a Crisis to Unlock the US-North Korea Nuclear Stalemate


Published on June 6, 2024

James M. Acton | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Ukraine’s attacks raised the risk of Russia’s nuclear use. Its decision demonstrates why President Joe Biden was right to prohibit Kyiv from using U.S.-supplied weapons to strike Russian territory and why, even after making a limited exception for strikes near Kharkiv, he should resist calls for any further loosening of restrictions.

Laurence Norman | The Wall Street Journal 

The United Nations atomic agency formally rebuked Iran over advances in its nuclear program and failure to cooperate with the body, a measure that Tehran has threatened to retaliate against. The rebuke—the first formal censure resolution of Iran by the agency’s board of member states since November 2022—was led by European governments. The Biden administration had initially opposed the move and threatened to abstain but ultimately voted in favor. The U.S. team only confirmed Wednesday morning it would back the measures and not abstain, according to two European diplomats.

Samia Nakhoul and Guy Faulconbridge | Reuters

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday he could deploy conventional missiles within striking distance of the United States and its European allies if they allowed Ukraine to strike deeper into Russia with long-range Western weapons. Putin, in his first face-to-face meeting with senior editors of international news agencies since the war in Ukraine began, said the West was wrong to assume Russia would never use nuclear weapons, and said the Kremlin's nuclear doctrine should not be taken lightly.

Christy Lee | VOA

China said it opposes a deployment of nuclear weapons to South Korea as it would pose danger to regional countries. Beijing was reacting to a report suggesting the United States should take such a measure to enhance deterrence against threats from North Korea. "If the U.S. deploys tactical nuclear weapons in Asia-Pacific region, it will be a dangerous move that will seriously threaten the security of regional countries and undermine regional peace and stability," said Liu Pengyu, a spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington.

Darya Dolzikova | Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 

As long as the ZNPP remains under Russian occupation, Moscow will be able to continue using the plant as a source of blackmail to pre-empt any future Ukrainian effort to regain control. To counter Russia’s nuclear blackmailing, Western countries must intensify their military, nuclear safety, and emergency response support to Ukraine, as well as counter Russian disinformation in relation to the state of ZNPP operations and attacks on the facility. Such measures can help minimize the coercive value Moscow may believe it can draw from further threatening the plant’s safety.

Chad O’Carroll | NK News

Is there any prospect of a thaw? Frank Aum, senior expert on Northeast Asia at the U.S. Institute of Peace, said there might be — through either crisis or a renewed interest in unconventional diplomacy. But he thinks waiting for a crisis is a bad idea and questions whether a second Biden term can offer any new perspectives on the DPRK, as well as whether Kim Jong Un would even be seriously interested in another round of summits with Donald Trump. In a recent interview with NK News, Aum drew on his experience advising four U.S. defense chiefs on Korea policy to sketch out the current impasse, potential inflection points and the challenges for those still seeking engagement and peacebuilding with North Korea.


Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.