Nicole Grajewski | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
After thirteen days of warfare with Israel—compounded by U.S. airstrikes on its nuclear facilities—the Islamic Republic finds itself on the brink of a dramatically altered strategic landscape… Tehran now stands before a fateful choice: to persist in the same confrontational policies that have deepened its isolation and exposed its weaknesses, or to adapt to a new reality in which its deterrent has been pierced, its strategic depth has been compromised, and its survival is no longer guaranteed by old formulas.
James M. Acton | Arms Control Wonk
Central to the Trump administration’s case for the effectiveness of its air strikes on Iran is the destruction of a “conversion” facility at Isfahan with equipment for producing uranium metal. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has claimed that U.S. strikes set Iran back by “years,” largely because of the difficulty that, in his telling, Iran would now face in producing the metallic cores of nuclear weapons. Tellingly, however, the purported value of attacking Iran’s uranium metal production lines has become an argument for military action only in the aftermath of strikes… Their loss did not set Iran’s nuclear-weapon program back by “years;” in fact, it may not even have set Tehran back by months.
Thorsten Benner, Min-Hyung Kim, Ana Palacio, Ankit Panda, and Sam Roggeveen | Project Syndicate
As America’s friends and allies watch the Trump administration take a sledgehammer to nearly all the longstanding pillars of US grand strategy, their discomfort and unease are palpable and understandable. However, even if they can no longer treat the US as a reliable patron and provider of extended nuclear deterrence, that does not mean they should pursue their own nuclear-weapons programs. Asian or European governments that might see independent nuclear weapons as salvation amid worsening geopolitical conditions need to consider the risks.
Laurence Norman | The Wall Street Journal
Iran said it was suspending cooperation with the United Nations atomic agency, denying international inspectors the chance to assess the damage done by U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on its main nuclear sites and setting up a new clash with Washington and other Western powers. Iran’s move will leave the International Atomic Energy Agency blind for now to any renewed nuclear work that Tehran is able to do and unable to verify the whereabouts of its large stockpile of already enriched uranium.
Helene Cooper | The New York Times
The Pentagon’s chief spokesman, Sean Parnell, said on Wednesday that American and Israeli bombing campaigns set back Iran’s nuclear program by one to two years, the latest in a confusing series of shifting assessments of the damage the bombs inflicted on Iranian nuclear facilities. Earlier this week, the chief United Nations nuclear inspector said that Iran could be enriching uranium again in a “matter of months,” even as President Trump continued to insist that the bombing had obliterated Tehran’s nuclear program.
Barak Ravid | Axios
White House envoy Steve Witkoff is planning to meet Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Oslo next week to restart nuclear talks, according to two sources familiar with the discussions. The sources said a final date hasn't been set, and neither country has publicly confirmed the meeting. But if it happens, it would mark the first direct talks since President Trump ordered an unprecedented military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities last month.
Pranay Vaddi | Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
Following Israel’s air attacks against Iran’s nuclear sites, which the United States joined a week later through Operation Midnight Hammer, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei now faces unpleasant options... Iran may retain sufficient capability, knowledge, and nuclear materials to restart a nuclear program—something that an intercepted call of Iranian officials seems to confirm. In doing so, Iran may focus on a more streamlined effort, rather than reconstructing and reusing the damaged facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. But Iran must tread carefully.