Edition

Proliferation News 8/13/24

IN THIS ISSUE: Russian Navy Trained to Target Sites Inside Europe with Nuclear-Capable Missiles, Iran’s President Nominates Former Nuclear Negotiator as Foreign Minister, South Korean Nuclear Weapons Would Fracture US Ties, Defence Chief Says, Sellafield Apologises After Guilty Plea Over String of Cybersecurity Failings, North Korea Secretly Building Missile Launchers at Obscure Factory Near Capital, Can Donald Trump’s Iron Dome Plan Keep America Safe?

Published on August 13, 2024

Max Seddon and Chris Cook | Financial Times 

Russia has trained its navy to target sites deep inside Europe using nuclear-capable missiles in a potential conflict with Nato, according to secret files seen by the Financial Times. Maps of targets as far-flung as the west coast of France and Barrow-in-Furness in the UK are detailed in a presentation for officers that predates the full-scale invasion of Ukraine…The latest revelations show how Russia envisioned a conflict with the west reaching well beyond its immediate Nato frontier, planning for a series of overwhelming strikes across western Europe. The documents were shown to the FT by western sources. The files, drawn up between 2008 and 2014, include a target list for missiles that can carry either conventional warheads or tactical nuclear weapons. Russian officers highlight the advantages of using nuclear strikes at an early stage.

Najmeh Bozorgmehr | Financial Times

Iran’s reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian has nominated a former nuclear negotiator as foreign minister to his proposed cabinet as he faces the dual challenge of resuming talks with western powers about sanctions relief while managing a potential confrontation with Israel. Abbas Araghchi, a seasoned diplomat who played a critical role in the 2015 nuclear accord negotiations, had been sidelined by hardliners in recent years as they consolidated control. Western diplomats in Tehran and Iran’s business community welcomed Araghchi’s selection, presented to parliament on Sunday along with 18 other cabinet nominations. It was a sign that the republic might adopt a more pragmatic approach to its long-running nuclear stand-off with the west in the hope of securing sanctions relief, they said.

 Hyonhee Shin and Josh Smith | Reuters

South Korea could rupture its U.S. alliance and shock financial markets if it started building nuclear weapons, Defence Minister Shin Won-sik told Reuters, dismissing renewed domestic calls for the country's own arsenal to deter North Korea. The prospect of another term for former U.S. President Donald Trump, who complained about the cost of the U.S. military presence in South Korea and launched unprecedented talks with the North, has further fuelled the debate. But Shin, a former three-star army general who also served as a lawmaker in Yoon's party, said having a homegrown nuclear arsenal risked devastating fallout to the South's diplomatic standing and economy, akin to what analysts called Black Monday this week for the stock market's worst losses since 2008.

Anna Isaac and Alex Lawson | The Guardian 

Sellafield has apologised after pleading guilty to criminal charges relating to a string of cybersecurity failings at Britain’s most hazardous nuclear site, which it admitted could have threatened national security. Among the failings at the vast nuclear waste dump in Cumbria was the discovery that 75% of its computer servers were vulnerable to cyber-attacks, Westminster magistrates court in London heard. Information that could threaten national security was left exposed for four years, the nuclear watchdog revealed, and Sellafield said it had been performing critical IT health checks that were not, in fact, being carried out.

Colin Zwirko | NK Pro

North Korea appears to have recently started using a decades-old factory near the capital to build launch vehicles for nuclear missiles, according to exclusive analysis of satellite imagery, underscoring Kim Jong Un’s push to rapidly increase production of capabilities that target the South. The facility just outside Pyongyang has been producing the transporter erector launchers (TELs) since at least Nov. 2023, and their size and shape suggest that they are for Hwasong-11D short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM), according to a joint NK Pro investigation with the New Tools Team at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation at the Middlebury Institute.

The Economist

Despite the bullishness of Mr Trump and other politicians, no missile shield will ever be impermeable. The success that they have enjoyed with short- and medium-range missiles in Ukraine and Israel does not automatically translate into success against icbms. As missiles get cheaper, more accurate and distributed to smaller countries and armed groups, the threat will continue to grow. Countries will find that, like Ukraine, they will be forced, in wartime, to choose between protecting their civilian population, critical infrastructure, military bases and frontline troops. What is certain is that the race between missile and the interceptor is entering a new and more uncertain era.


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