Edition

Proliferation News 8/21/25

IN THIS ISSUE: Iran’s Freeze on Nuclear Inspections Prompts UN-US Crisis Talks, Russia needs a nuclear shield update due to 'colossal threats', nuclear chief says, North Korea Has a Secret Long-Range Missile Base Near Chinese Border, Report Says, China military parade to show off hypersonic missiles and autonomous weapons, How Much Damage Did U.S. Strikes Do to Iran’s Fordo Nuclear Site?, Anthropic, DOE team up to spot dangerous nuclear chats.

Published on August 21, 2025

Jonathan Tirone | Bloomberg 

International Atomic Energy Agency officials will travel to Washington next week to confer with the US as concerns grow about their inability to account for Iran’s stockpile of near-bomb grade uranium, according to diplomats with knowledge of the situation. The trip has been planned after IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi’s top inspector failed in a recent attempt to win Iranian approval to resume monitoring after Israel and Iran’s 12-day war in June, said three diplomats, who asked not to be identified discussing sensitive information. 

Reuters/Yahoo 

Russia's nuclear shield should be strengthened in coming years due to the "colossal threats" facing the world's biggest nuclear power, the head of Russia's state nuclear corporation said on Thursday. ... "Now, in the current geopolitical situation, is a time of colossal threats to the existence of our country. Therefore, the nuclear shield, which is also a sword, is a guarantee of our sovereignty," Russian state news agency RIA cited Alexei Likhachev as saying. 

Timothy W. Martin | The Wall Street Journal 

North Korea has a heavily fortified, covert military base that could house its newest long-range ballistic missiles, which are potentially capable of striking the U.S. mainland, according to a new report. The Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank, has identified what it believes is a secret base near the village of Sinpung-dong, about 17 miles from the Chinese border. 

Kathrin Hille | Financial Times 

China will show off a range of new hypersonic missiles and uncrewed weapons at a huge military parade early next month, highlighting the People’s Liberation Army’s increasing capabilities for targeting US naval forces in the Pacific and waging war on Taiwan. The parade on September 3 will include the “debut of hypersonic, anti-missile defence and strategic missiles to exhibit our strong strategic deterrence capabilities”, Major General Wu Zeke, deputy director of the operations bureau of the Joint Staff Department of the Central Military Commission, said at a press conference in Beijing on Wednesday. 

James Glanz, Samuel Granados, Junho Lee, Eric Schmitt and Marco Hernandez | The New York Times 

On June 22, the United States launched an attack on Fordo, an Iranian nuclear enrichment facility buried deep within a mountain, using the deepest-penetrating conventional bomb the United States has ever built. ... Without access to the site, it may be quite some time before outside experts can gauge exactly how seriously Fordo was damaged, though a recent U.S. assessment described it as badly damaged. But a look at the bomb used and the facility’s structure, as well as an assessment of the site’s geology, offers some clues. 

Sam Sabin | Axios 

Anthropic and the U.S. government's nuclear experts have developed a new tool that can spot the difference between a scientist asking Claude about nuclear reactors and a spy probing it for secrets about weapons development. During a year's worth of red-teaming tests, the NNSA was able to develop a list of indicators that can help Claude identify "potentially concerning conversations about nuclear weapons development." 

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.