Edition

Proliferation News 8/5/25

IN THIS ISSUE: The covert trip by Iranian nuclear experts to Russia, Russia says it no longer will abide by its self-imposed moratorium on intermediate-range missiles, Russia warns against threats after Trump repositions nuclear submarines, Pentagon schedules first major test for Golden Dome missile defense system just before 2028 election, sources say, Duffy to announce nuclear reactor on the moon, The options for finding Iran’s hidden uranium: Attack, negotiate, or wait.

Published on August 5, 2025

Miles Johnson and Max Seddon | The Financial Times

At 9.40am on August 4 last year, Mahan Air flight W598 from Tehran landed at Moscow’s Sheremetyevo International Airport… An FT investigation has found that this Iranian delegation visited Russian scientific institutes that produce dual-use technologies — components with civilian applications but which, experts say, have potential relevance to nuclear weapons research… “Israel can’t totally destroy Iran’s nuclear programme,” says Carnegie’s Grajewski. “Because one of the things Iran has done is have those involved in the Amad plan train a cadre of younger scientists.”


AP News

Russia has declared that it no longer considers itself bound by a self-imposed moratorium on the deployment of nuclear-capable intermediate range missiles, a warning that potentially sets the stage for a new arms race as tensions between Moscow and Washington rise again over Ukraine… Asked where and when Russia could potentially deploy intermediate-range weapons, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that it’s not something to be announced in advance. “Russia no longer has any limitations, Russia no longer considers itself to be constrained by anything,” Peskov told reporters.


Robyn Dixon | The Washington Post

The Kremlin warned Monday against “nuclear rhetoric” after President Donald Trump repositioned two nuclear submarines because of what he called “foolish and inflammatory statements” by former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev… Peskov’s remarks, the first official statement from the Kremlin about Trump’s move, seemed to distance Russian President Vladimir Putin from Medvedev, a longtime prime minister under Putin who now serves as deputy chairman of the country’s Security Council.


Natasha Bertrand and Zachary Cohen | CNN

The Pentagon has scheduled its first major test of the multibillion-dollar Golden Dome missile defense system for just before the 2028 election, according to two sources familiar with the matter, setting an aggressive deadline for military officials to prove they can turn President Donald Trump’s vision for a space-based shield that can protect the entire US into a reality. The timeline lines up with Trump’s pledge in May to “have it done in three years.”


Sam Skove | Politico

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy will announce expedited plans this week to build a nuclear reactor on the moon, the first major action by the former Fox News host as the interim NASA administrator… The reactor directive orders the agency to solicit industry proposals for a 100 kilowatt nuclear reactor to launch by 2030, a key consideration for astronauts’ return to the lunar surface. NASA previously funded research into a 40 kilowatt reactor for use on the moon, with plans to have a reactor ready for launch by the early 2030s.


Jonathan Tirone | Bloomberg

At last count, Iran possessed 409 kg of near-bomb-grade material, along with 8,000 kg of uranium enriched to lower levels. The whereabouts of that stockpile hasn’t been verified since the attacks began… By failing to account for or destroy the nuclear-fuel inventory, Israel and the US have provided Iran with “strategic ambiguity” it didn’t have before the war began — a bargaining chip in any potential negotiations over what happens next. The dilemma is how to respond.

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.