Edition

Proportionate Deterrence: A Model Nuclear Posture Review

IN THIS ISSUE: Proportionate Deterrence: A Model Nuclear Posture Review, Biden Administration to Seek Five-Year Extension on Key Nuclear Arms Treaty in First Foray With Russia, Iran’s Rouhani Hopes Biden Will Return to Obama-era Nuclear Deal as he Dubs Trump a ‘Tyrant’, U.S. is Some Ways From Decision on Resuming Iran Nuclear Deal: Blinken, Blinken Says U.S. Plans Full Review of Approach to North Korea, S. Korea Proposes Plans for Nuclear Submarine, Backpedals After Stirring up Controversy

Published on January 21, 2021

Proportionate Deterrence: A Model Nuclear Posture Review

George Perkovich and Pranay Vaddi | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Ever since the election of Bill Clinton in 1992, every U.S. presidential administration has published a Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) that explains the rationales behind its nuclear strategy, doctrine, and requested forces. These reviews have helped inform U.S. government personnel, citizens, allies, and adversaries of the country’s intentions and planned capabilities for conducting nuclear deterrence and, if necessary, war. The administration that takes office in January 2021 may or may not conduct a new NPR, but it will assess and update nuclear policies as part of its overall recalibration of national security strategy and policies.

Biden Administration to Seek Five-Year Extension on Key Nuclear Arms Treaty in First Foray With Russia

John Hudson | Washington Post

President Biden is seeking a five-year extension with Russia on the only remaining treaty limiting the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals just days before it expires, said two senior U.S. officials. At the same time, his administration is preparing to impose new costs on Russia pending a newly requested intelligence assessment of its recent activities. The officials said Biden is ruling out a “reset” in bilateral relations with Moscow as many new U.S. presidents have done since the end of the Cold War. “As we work with Russia, so, too, will we work to hold Russia accountable for their reckless and aggressive actions that we’ve seen in recent months and years,” said a senior U.S. official, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive security matter.

Iran’s Rouhani Hopes Biden Will Return to Obama-era Nuclear Deal as he Dubs Trump a ‘Tyrant’

Ramin Mostaghim and James Griffiths | CNN

Iran's President Hassan Rouhani has called on United States President-elect, Joe Biden, to return to the 2015 nuclear deal and lift sanctions imposed on Tehran by Donald Trump's administration. Speaking at a televised cabinet meeting Wednesday, Rouhani said the ball was “in the U.S. court now.” “If Washington returns to Iran's 2015 nuclear deal, we will also fully respect our commitments under the pact,” he said, adding in reference to Trump that “a tyrant's era came to an end and today is the final day of his ominous reign.” Tensions between the two countries ratcheted up during Trump's time in office, appearing to almost reach breaking point after the U.S. assassinated Iranian general Qasem Soleimani last January. Recent weeks have seen a new round of saber-rattling, amid fears the Trump administration might attempt to provoke a conflict in its final days.

U.S. is Some Ways From Decision on Resuming Iran Nuclear Deal: Blinken

Arshad Mohammed and Humeyra Pamuk | Reuters

The United States does not face a quick decision on whether to rejoin the Iran nuclear deal abandoned by U.S. President Donald Trump, two of President-elect Joe Biden’s top national security nominees said on Tuesday. Biden, who takes office on Wednesday, has said that if Tehran resumed strict compliance with the 2015 agreement - under which Iran restrained its nuclear program in return for relief from economic sanctions - Washington would too. “We are a long way from there,” Antony Blinken, Biden’s choice for secretary of state, told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, saying the Democratic president-elect would need to see what Iran actually did to resume complying with the pact.

Blinken Says U.S. Plans Full Review of Approach to North Korea

Reuters

President-elect Joe Biden’s nominee for secretary of state, Antony Blinken, said on Tuesday the incoming administration planned a full review of the U.S. approach to North Korea to look at ways to increase pressure on the country to come to the negotiating table over its nuclear weapons. At the same time, the United States would also look at providing humanitarian help to North Korea if needed, Blinken said. “We do want to make sure that in anything we do, we have an eye on the humanitarian side of the equation, not just on the security side of the equation,” he told his Senate confirmation hearing.

S. Korea Proposes Plans for Nuclear Submarine, Backpedals After Stirring up Controversy

Park Byong-su | Hankyoreh

South Korean government agencies have suggested using nuclear technology in future submarines, the latest in several references to this fraught subject. The idea came up in a list of conceptual weapon systems proposed by the Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA) and the Agency for Defense Development (ADD). One of the items on the list was a nuclear-powered unmanned nuclear depot ship. When the idea stirred up controversy, the ADD backpedaled by releasing a statement asserting that the conceptual submarine’s source of propulsion hasn’t been determined. On the morning of Jan. 20, the ADD posted on its website an almanac of defense systems proposed in a defense project that seeks to develop technology to meet future challenges. The 14th conceptual weapon system in the almanac, which was jointly published by DAPA, was a nuclear-powered submarine depot ship.

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.