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Resources for the Future of Arms Control

IN THIS ISSUE: When Can the President Withdraw From the Open Skies Treaty? Iran Launches First Military Satellite in Latest Show of Force, North Korea Continues to Flout Trump, Advance Nuclear Ambitions, US Signals Growing Unease With Pakistan, Tightens Export of Nuclear Byproducts

Published on April 23, 2020

Resources for the Future of Arms Control

Nuclear Policy Program | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Arms control is at an inflection point. The existing architecture is in decay at the same time that political leaders are setting out ever more ambitious demands for future agreements. This page presents a collection of key resources for those attempting to chart a course forward. It covers the aims of arms control, the history of arms control negotiations, verification and monitoring, and contemporary challenges. 

When Can the President Withdraw From the Open Skies Treaty?

Scott R. Anderson and Pranay Vaddi | Lawfare

Several weeks ago, in early April 2020, Secretary of Defense Mark Esper and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo reportedly agreed to begin withdrawing the United States from the Treaty on Open Skies, a multilateral agreement that facilitates reconnaissance overflights among its members in order to promote military transparency. Following the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal and Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, these efforts may be a sign of President Trump’s ongoing commitment to shedding arms-control-related restrictions. Yet Trump has not yet pursued any consultations or other formal steps toward withdrawal from the Open Skies Treaty, leaving the administration’s next step—and its ultimate intentions—somewhat unclear. 

Iran Launches First Military Satellite in Latest Show of Force

Amanda Macias | CNBC

Iran said Wednesday that it successfully launched the nation’s first military satellite, another move in the heightened tit-for-tat fight between Washington and Tehran over the regime’s missile programs. The satellite, dubbed Noor, was sent into orbit using a long-range rocket, according to a statement by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. U.S. officials have long feared that Iran’s pursuit of developing satellite technology is a cover for ballistic missile activity. Tehran, meanwhile, has denied those assertions and has said that Iran is not working toward a nuclear weapons program.

North Korea Continues to Flout Trump, Advance Nuclear Ambitions

Colum Lynch | Foreign Policy

North Korea continues to advance its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs, illicitly import fuel and other prohibited items, and stock up on luxury goods in defiance of United Nations sanctions, underscoring the limits of U.S. President Donald Trump’s high-profile diplomatic campaign, according to a report by a U.N. panel of experts on sanctions against North Korea. 

US Signals Growing Unease With Pakistan, Tightens Export of Nuclear Byproducts

Yashwant Raj | Hindustan Times

The United States has suspended the export of nuclear byproducts under a blanket general licensing system to Pakistan, whose history of nuclear proliferation has been a concern and has led to the blacklisting of many of its government agencies and private contractors. The decision announced in the government gazette called the Federal Register on Wednesday does not prohibit export of these nuclear materials — that are used as radionuclides embedded in devices — altogether, but make it mandatory for exporters to seek government’s permission every time and for every specific consignment.

Russia to Hold About Ten More Test Launches of Tsirkon Hypersonic Missile - Source

TASS

Russia will carry out about 10 more launches of its newest hypersonic missile, Tsirkon, as part of state trials, a source in Russia’s defense industry told TASS. According to the source, the trials will be held in 2020-2021. “Approximately seven or eight launches at ground and naval target are scheduled from the Admiral Gorshkov frigate, while two or three launches will be performed from the Severodvinsk submarine, at least one of them while submerged,” the source said.

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