Russia Is Updating Their Nuclear Weapons: What Does That Mean for the Rest of Us?
Rose Gottemoeller | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Q: Do the U.S. and Russia have different reasons for modernizing nuclear weapons?
A: In the big strategic game, the Russians and Americans have the same reason for modernizing their nuclear forces: they want to maintain parity. If the two sides have the same number of nuclear warheads deployed, then they will not be tempted to shoot at each other. They also have a reason to avoid an arms race that would entail constantly seeking more nuclear weapons to try to achieve superiority—however temporary. As expensive as nuclear weapons and their delivery vehicles are, parity has kept the costs down by holding the arms race in check. In the past few years, Vladimir Putin does seem to be after nuclear weapons for another reason—to show that Russia is still a great power to be reckoned with.
US Has Deployed New, Small Nukes on Submarine, According to Group
Geoff Brumfiel | NPR
The U.S. has begun deploying a new type of low-yield nuclear warhead aboard some ballistic missile submarines, according to a report by an independent monitor. When the USS Tennessee, an Ohio-class submarine, went on patrol in the final weeks of 2019, it carried “one or two” of the new weapons, according to a post by the Federation of American Scientists. “It is apparently still out there now and expected to come back sometime in February,” says Hans Kristensen, director of the group's nuclear information project. He believes a second submarine carrying the weapon may also be patrolling in the Pacific. Kristensen says the assessment is based on conversations with government officials, who have spoken to the group about the weapon's deployment. The Pentagon officially declined to comment on the report: “It is U.S. policy to neither confirm nor deny the presence or absence of nuclear weapons at any general or specific location, as such, we cannot confirm or deny this reporting at this time,” it said in a written statement to NPR.
US to Renew Waivers on Iran Nuclear Work, Sanction Nuclear Organization: Sources
Humeyra Pamuk and John Irish | Reuters
The United States will allow Russian, Chinese and European firms to continue work at Iranian nuclear sites to make it harder for Iran to develop a nuclear weapon, but will impose sanctions on its nuclear entity and top official, sources said on Thursday. The Trump administration, which in 2018 pulled out of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran, will let the work go forward by issuing waivers to sanctions that bar non-U.S. firms from dealing with the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), said the sources on condition of anonymity. The waivers’ renewal for 60 days will allow non-proliferation work to continue at the Arak heavy water research reactor, the Bushehr nuclear power plant, the Tehran Research Reactor and other nuclear cooperation initiatives. “There was a difference of opinion between the U.S. Treasury and State Department. The Treasury won,” said a Western diplomat familiar with the issue. “There is an appetite for more sanctions so this was a surprise, but others argue that these waivers are vital to ensure non-proliferation.”
Energy Minister: Israel Stopped 'Very Serious' Cyber Attack on Power Plant
Eytan Halon | Jerusalem Post
Israel detected and prevented a “very serious cyberattack” on one of the country’s power plants, Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz said on Wednesday. Addressing the Cybertech Global Tel Aviv 2020 conference, Steinitz said the attempted attack was detected “a few months ago,” and represented one of only a few serious cyberattacks on Israeli energy facilities to date. “It was detected and neutralized, but it was a very serious, sophisticated attempt to try to control and paralyze one of our power stations,” said Steinitz, adding that the attack targeted a number of additional sites. Steinitz, who was appointed energy minister in May 2015, emphasized the potential devastation likely to be caused by a successful cyberattack against the energy sector, and particularly nuclear power stations. Israeli cooperation with the United States in the field of cybersecurity places a special emphasis on energy infrastructure, he said.
Latest North Korea Quake Shows Legacy of Instability at Nuclear Test Site: South Korea
Sangmi Cha and Josh Smith | Reuters
A small natural earthquake detected in North Korea on Wednesday was likely a result of seismic instability lingering in the area since North Korea conducted its sixth and largest nuclear test in 2017, the South Korean government said. A magnitude 2.5 earthquake was detected at 9:33 a.m. (0033 GMT) in Hamgyong Province, the location of North Korea’s shuttered Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site, according to South Korea’s Meteorological Administration. “It was a natural earthquake, presumably caused by the sixth nuclear test,” the administration said in a statement on its website. “The area is about 3 kilometers (1.86 miles) southeast of the sixth nuclear test site.” Punggye-ri is the only known site in North Korea used to test nuclear weapons. At least six tests were conducted there between October 2006 and September 2017. In early 2018, North Korea said it would close the site, saying its nuclear force was complete.
Recent Imagery Does Not Suggest an Imminent Missile or Engine Test
38 North
A recently published news report by CNN suggested that vehicle activity at one of North Korea’s missile development facilities, the Sanum-dong missile research center near Pyongyang, may be an indicator of a forthcoming long-range missile launch or engine test. North Korea’s next moves remain unclear, but contrary to the report, none of the activities to date suggest imminent testing. While commercial satellite imagery resolution is not consistent, the “blue shipping container” reported present in January 2020 may not be a container at all, but rather either a long trailer van or bus-like vehicle. A similarly colored trailer was observed in imagery from May 25, 2018 and again on March 11, 2019. It seems to come and go, as do most of the vehicles observed at the complex. Clearly, the facility is active, but none of the vehicle movements are on their own an indicator of a pending launch or engine test.