Scratching Erdogan’s Nuclear Itch
Mark Hibbs | Arms Control Wonk
News media reporters can be counted on to scratch their Country X-is-going-nuclear itch whenever its armed forces burst across its borders, and this week was no exception following Turkey’s invasion of Syria. On October 22 the New York Times went over the top in headlining that President Recip Tayyip Erdogan “says he wants nuclear weapons” after he complained in public appearances in September and October that the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) is unfair. At the United Nations General Assembly on September 24 Erdogan said in fact: “nuclear power should be either free for all or banned.” In Turkey the week before, Erdogan said he “cannot accept” that a few powerful states have nuclear weapons on missiles while the rest of the world is denied the right to have them. So what to conclude from all the noise before the microphones? Erdogan’s words loudly signaled that he intends to heed Turkey’s national interests as he defines them, but they hardly amounted to a programmatic announcement that Turkey wants the Bomb.
‘Tough Times For Arms Control,’ NATO Chief Says
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has said that arms-control regimes need to adapt to “new realities” to remain effective, citing Russia's disregard for its international commitments and the emergence of new actors and technologies. “These are tough times for arms control,” Stoltenberg told the NATO-organized High-Level Public Diplomacy Arms Control Conference in Brussels on October 23, adding that “the global arms-control regime that has served us so well is eroding.” “We need to preserve and implement the [Nuclear] Nonproliferation Treaty. We need to adapt nuclear arms-control regimes to new realities. We need to modernize the Vienna Document. And we need to consider how to develop new rules and standards for emerging technologies, including advanced missile technology,” he said.
Europeans, Others Talking to Tehran on a Mechanism to Save JCPOA, Iran Says
Tehran Times
Iran reiterated on Wednesday that it will take the next step to reduce commitments to the 2015 nuclear deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), if no concrete action is taken by the remaining parties to protect Iran from the U.S. sanctions. “Europeans and others constantly send us messages and talk about reaching a common framework before end of two-month deadline,” presidential chief of staff Mahmoud Vaezi told reporters on the sidelines of a cabinet meeting. He added, “Negotiations are being held. However, Mr. President [Hassan Rouhani] has formed a committee for taking the fourth step. Definitely, we will take the fourth step if we do not reach a common framework.” Foreign Ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi said on Monday that Tehran is ready to take the fourth step to reduce commitments under the JCPOA. Iran’s next step falls in early November.
N.K. to See How ‘Wisely’ Washington Acts Through Year-End Deadline: Official
Yonhap News Agency
A former top North Korean nuclear envoy said Thursday he hopes to see the United States act “wisely” through the end of the year, apparently referring to the deadline Pyongyang set for Washington to come up with a new proposal in their denuclearization negotiations. In a statement, Kim Kye-gwan, a foreign ministry adviser, also voiced hope that “special” relations between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and U.S. President Donald Trump will create a “motive force” to remove challenges between the two countries going forward. Emphasizing the “special” relationship between Kim and Trump and criticizing Trump's staff, the North seems to be seeking yet another summit with the U.S., as it sees such a top-down approach as having a better chance of producing progress in talks with the U.S., experts said.
Russia Sends Nuclear-Bombers to South Africa in ‘Friendly’ Visit
Moscow Times
Russia will land two nuclear-capable strategic Tu-160 bombers in South Africa on Wednesday, Interfax news agency cited South Africa's military as saying. Observers say it would be the first such deployment on the African continent. The Tupolev Tu-160 strategic bomber, nicknamed the White Swan in Russia, is a supersonic Soviet-era aircraft capable of carrying up to 12 short-range nuclear missiles and of flying 12,000 kilometers non-stop without refueling. Cited by Interfax on Monday, Russia’s Defense Ministry said it will fly two Tu-160s, an Ilyushin Il-62 passenger jet and an Antonov An-124 military cargo plane to South Africa. Russian news agencies reported after midnight that the An-124 and Il-62 had already landed in the country. An Oct. 18 statement by Russia’s Defense Ministry notes that the air group’s visit aims to deepen military cooperation with South Africa’s air force and is part of “friendly relations” between the two countries that are built on strategic partnership and understanding. Last December, two Russian Tu-160 strategic bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons landed in Venezuela in a symbolic show of support for the government there, prompting criticism from the United States.
Donald Trump Is Set to Rip Up Another Arms-Control Treaty
Economist
It was the eighth time this year that a Russian aircraft has flown over America under the Open Skies treaty, a pact that allows its 34 signatories to make unarmed reconnaissance flights over any part of one another’s territory. Alas, the treaty may soon become the latest addition to the Trump administration’s bonfire of arms-control agreements. Mr Bolton drew up a memo directing America to pull out of the treaty and lodged it in the national-security apparatus like a stink-bomb. Mr Trump is reported to have signed the directive a few weeks after Mr Bolton’s departure without consulting the Pentagon, State Department or allies. But there has been no formal announcement yet and under the terms of the treaty, America must give six months’ notice of its intention to withdraw. The Pentagon and State Department are similarly worried and Robert O’Brien, Mr Bolton’s successor, is said to be slow-walking the order. America’s allies have been working the phones, urging Mr Trump to reconsider.