Sole Purpose is Not No First Use: Nuclear Weapons and Declaratory Policy
Ankit Panda and Vipin Narang | War on the Rocks
Nuclear weapons by themselves can say a lot. They may deter aggression, for example, through their simple existence, generating a “threat that leaves something to chance,” as Thomas Schelling famously put it. Sometimes the less said about them the better: This leaves adversaries guessing what may trigger their use. So why do states bother declaring why they have nuclear weapons or when they might use them? In the case of the United States, at least, nuclear weapons do more than deter adversaries — they should also reassure allies about America’s commitment to extending deterrence to them and assure the world that the United States is a responsible steward of nuclear weapons.
IAEA and Iran Strike Three-Month Deal Over Nuclear Inspections
Patrick Wintour | Guardian
The UN’s nuclear inspectorate has struck a three-month deal with Iran giving it sufficient continued access to verify nuclear activity in the country, opening the space for wider political and diplomatic talks between Tehran and the U.S. Iran will go ahead with its threat to withdraw this week from the additional protocol, the agreement that gives inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) intrusive powers. However, following a weekend of talks with officials in Tehran, the IAEA’s director general, Rafael Grossi, announced that he had struck what he described as “a temporary bilateral technical understanding” that will mitigate the impact of Iran’s withdrawal from the protocol, and give the IAEA confidence that it can continue to verify Iran’s nuclear activity.
Michael Elleman, a ‘Top Expert’ on North Korean Weapons, Dies at 62
Min Chao Choy | NK News
Michael S. Elleman, a world-renowned missile expert who spent much of his life trying to stop advances to North Korea’s nuclear program, died of cancer at George Washington University Hospital on Saturday, Feb. 20. He was 62 years old. A former scientist-turned-UN-missile-inspector and analyst, Elleman was known for his gift of explaining North Korea’s complex missile systems to politicians, journalists and countless students and mentees in an approachable way. “He was the most generous, kind and sharing colleague there could be,” said Mark Fitzpatrick, who was Elleman’s colleague and friend at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) for more than 10 years.
IAEA Found Uranium Traces at Two Sites Iran Barred it From, Sources Say
Francois Murphy and John Irish | Reuters
The UN nuclear watchdog found uranium particles at two Iranian sites it inspected after months of stonewalling, diplomats say, and it is preparing to rebuke Tehran for failing to explain, possibly complicating U.S. efforts to revive nuclear diplomacy. The find and Iran’s response risk hurting efforts by the new U.S. administration to restore Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal, which President Joe Biden’s predecessor Donald Trump abandoned. Although the sites where the material was found are believed to have been inactive for nearly two decades, opponents of the nuclear deal, such as Israel, say evidence of undeclared nuclear activities shows that Iran has not been acting in good faith. Iran’s ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Kazem Gharibabadi, declined to comment, as did the IAEA itself.
North Korea-Iran Missile Cooperation is Reason for Ambitious Diplomacy
Mark Fitzpatrick | International Institute for Strategic Studies
A report submitted by the UN Panel of Experts on North Korea sanctions to the UN Security Council on 8 February detailed many instances of illegal activity by North Korea that give cause for concern. The activity that sparked the most headlines, regarding resumed missile cooperation with Iran, lends itself to alarmism but also offers further reasons to negotiate with Iran over its missile programme. In headlining the report, an Israeli TV station said Iran and North Korea ‘cooperate on ICBM development’. The Voice of America built an entire article around claims by a hawkish American professor that the purpose of the cooperation is to secure a capacity to simultaneously strike the United States from east and west, so as to overwhelm missile defences.
Israel Expands Nuclear Faciliity Previously Used for Weapons Material
Julian Borger | Guardian
Israel is carrying out a major expansion of its Dimona nuclear facility in the Negev desert, where it has historically made the fissile material for its nuclear arsenal. Construction work is evident in new satellite images published on Thursday by the International Panel on Fissile Material (IPFM), an independent expert group. The area being worked on is a few hundred metres across to the south and west of the domed reactor and reprocessing point at the Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center, near the desert town of Dimona. Pavel Podvig, a researcher with the programme on science and global security at Princeton University, said: “It appears that the construction started quite early in 2019, or late 2018, so it’s been under way for about two years, but that’s all we can say at this point.”