Edition

Strategic Stability in the 21st Century, January, 5, 2021

IN THIS ISSUE: Strategic Stability in the 21st Century, Iran Resumes 20% Enrichment at Fordow Amid Rising Tensions With U.S., No Signs of N. Korean Tests Ahead of Biden Inauguration, U.S. General Says, Iran Missile Program Must Be ‘On the Table’ in Nuclear Talks, Biden National Security Adviser Says, India, Pakistan Exchange List of Nuclear Installations, Lockheed Martin Gets $4.9 Billion Contract to Build Three Missile-Warning Satellites for U.S. Space Force

Published on January 5, 2021

Strategic Stability in the 21st Century 

Liana Fix and Ulrich Kühn | Russian Analytical Digest

Security and stability in the 21st century are seriously at risk. The erosion of existing arms control agreements and the growing rivalry between the United States, Russia, and China are increasing the threat of a new and global arms race. At the same time, all institutionalized forms of cooperation are in retreat. This development calls for innovative approaches in order to promote cooperation and dialog. Rethinking the concept of Strategic Stability could help to prevent competition from turning into open conflict. Against this background, the Körber Foundation and the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg (IFSH) have founded the Körber Strategic Stability Initiative. The project brings together a group of experts from China, Russia, the USA, and Europe (specifically from France, the United Kingdom, and Germany) in order to develop novel approaches and solutions. This article presents a number of their preliminary findings.

Iran Resumes 20% Enrichment at Fordow Amid Rising Tensions With U.S.

Parisa Hafezi | Reuters

Iran has resumed 20% uranium enrichment at an underground nuclear facility, the government said on Monday, breaching a 2015 nuclear pact with major powers and possibly complicating efforts by U.S. President-elect Joe Biden to rejoin the deal. Benjamin Netanyahu, prime minister of Iran’s arch foe Israel, said the move was aimed at developing nuclear weapons and Israel would never allow Tehran to build them. The enrichment decision, Iran’s latest contravention of the accord, coincides with increasing tensions between Iran and the United States in the last days of President Donald Trump’s administration. Tehran started violating the accord in 2019 in a step-by-step response to Trump’s withdrawal from it in 2018 and the reimposition of U.S. sanctions lifted under the deal.

No Signs of N. Korean Tests Ahead of Biden Inauguration, U.S. General Says

William Gallo | Voice of America News

North Korea does not appear to be preparing a major provocation at the onset of the administration of President-elect Joe Biden, according to the top U.S. general in South Korea, amid concerns Pyongyang could soon conduct a missile or other weapons test. “We're not seeing any indicators that suggest that there would be a major provocation -- but that's today. That could change next week,” General Robert Abrams, the commander of U.S. Forces Korea, told an online forum Tuesday. North Korea has often timed major tests, including of ballistic missiles or nuclear weapons, around U.S. presidential transitions, an effort to demonstrate its military capabilities and possibly gain leverage in future negotiations with Washington.  

Iran Missile Program Must Be ‘On the Table’ in Nuclear Talks, Biden National Security Adviser Says

Ben Samuels | Haaretz

Tehran’s ballistic missile program “has to be on the table” if the U.S. re-enters the Iran nuclear deal, Jake Sullivan, U.S. President-elect Joe Biden’s national security adviser, said Sunday – an issue that Iranian President Hassan Rohani said was non-negotiable as recently as last month. Addressing the one-year anniversary of the U.S. killing of Qassem Soleimani, head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Force, Sullivan told CNN’s Fareed Zakaria that Iran is closer to a nuclear weapon now than it was before and that the U.S. is no safer now than it was before Soleimani’s killing, highlighting continued Iranian provocation against American interests in the Middle East. “President Biden has said that if Iran comes back into compliance with its terms under the nuclear deal so that its program is back in a box then we would come back in, but that would become the basis for this follow-on negotiation,” Sullivan said, noting that talks around the ballistic missile program would be part of the negotiations after re-entry into the nuclear deal.

India, Pakistan Exchange List of Nuclear Installations

Kunal Gaurav | Hindustan Times

Pakistan and India on Friday conducted the annual practice of exchanging the list of their nuclear installations under a bilateral arrangement that prohibits them from attacking each other’s atomic facilities. The exchange was made in accordance with Article-II of the Agreement on Prohibition of Attacks against Nuclear Installations and Facilities between Pakistan and India, signed on December 31, 1988, the Foreign Office (FO) said in a statement here. It said that “the list of nuclear installations and facilities in Pakistan was officially handed over to a representative of the Indian High Commission at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs today, at 1100 hrs (PST).” “The Indian Ministry of External Affairs in New Delhi handed over the list of Indian Nuclear installations and facilities to a representative of the Pakistan High Commission at 1130 hrs (IST),” it added

Lockheed Martin Gets $4.9 Billion Contract to Build Three Missile-Warning Satellites for U.S. Space Force

Sandra Erwin | Space News

Lockheed Martin has been awarded a $4.9 billion contract for the production of three geosynchronous Next-Generation Overhead Persistent Infrared satellites, the Pentagon announced Jan. 4. The satellites will be operated by the U.S. Space Force and provide initial warning of a ballistic or tactical missile launch anywhere on the globe.  The Space Force is acquiring five Next-Gen OPIR satellites — the three geosynchronous orbit satellites made by Lockheed Martin and two polar orbit satellites made by Northrop Grumman. The Space and Missile Systems Center in August 2018 awarded Lockheed Martin a $2.9 billion contract for the development of the three GEO satellites. The new contract is for manufacturing, assembly, integration, testing and delivery by May 2028. The contract also covers ground system software and systems engineering

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