Edition

Sure, Deter China—But Manage Risk With North Korea, Too

IN THIS ISSUE: Sure, Deter China—But Manage Risk With North Korea, Too, Iran Eliminates Some Weapons Potential in Uranium Stockpile, Submarine Spy Couple Tried to Sell Nuclear Secrets to Brazil, For N.Korea’s Missile Programme, Even Failures Can Be Sign of Progress, Well-Known Names to Help Guide Congress on Nuclear Issues, The Curious Case of the Accidental Indian Missile Launch

Published on March 17, 2022

Sure, Deter China—But Manage Risk With North Korea, Too

Ankit Panda | Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

The military competition between the United States and China will intensify in the coming years. Like the Obama and Trump administrations, the Biden administration sees the Indo-Pacific region as a priority. Unlike its predecessors, however, the Biden administration will likely oversee a more successful recalibration of US capabilities to the region. . . . As the administration pursues its security and military posture goals in Asia, it continues to focus almost exclusively on allies, partners, and China, the main adversary. While this approach covers a wide range of countries, it omits a full consideration of the effects many of these changes are likely to have on the newest nuclear deterrence relationship US military planners are managing: the one with North Korea.

Iran Eliminates Some Weapons Potential in Uranium Stockpile

Jonathan Tirone | Bloomberg

Iran has started converting a third of its highly enriched uranium stockpile into material used to produce medical isotopes, potentially reducing tensions amid efforts to revive its landmark nuclear agreement with world powers. International Atomic Energy Agency monitors verified that Iran began on March 11 irradiating part of its stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% to produce molybdenum targets, according to a two-page restricted document circulated late Wednesday among diplomats in Vienna and seen by Bloomberg. The process renders the material useless for weapons.

Submarine Spy Couple Tried to Sell Nuclear Secrets to Brazil

Julian E. Barnes, André Spigariol, Jack Nicas, and Adam Goldman | New York Times

In 2020, a United States naval engineer and his wife made the fateful decision to try to sell some of America’s most closely guarded military secrets, the technology behind the nuclear reactors that power the U.S. submarine fleet. Then the couple faced another important choice: To which foreign government should they try to peddle the stolen secrets? The engineer appeared to believe that soliciting American adversaries like Russia or China was, morally, a bridge too far, according to text messages released in court. Instead, Jonathan and Diana Toebbe thought of a country that was rich enough to buy the secrets, not hostile to the United States and, most importantly, increasingly eager to acquire the very technology they were selling: Brazil.

For N.Korea’s Missile Programme, Even Failures Can Be Sign of Progress

Josh Smith | Reuters

It is unclear if the apparent failure of a missile launch on Wednesday dealt a lasting blow to North Korea’s plans, but analysts say failures are an important part of any development programme and in the North’s case, have often hinted at progress in more indigenous designs. South Korea's military said a presumed ballistic missile exploded in mid-air shortly after it was test-fired from the international airport near Pyongyang on Wednesday morning. North Korea has not commented on or publicly acknowledged the reports.

Well-Known Names to Help Guide Congress on Nuclear Issues

Justin Katz | Breaking Defense

The top lawmakers on the congressional committees overseeing the Pentagon today released a list of individuals they have selected to serve on a new commission tasked with evaluating the “long-term strategic posture of the United States.” The 12-person commission, established through the fiscal 2022 National Defense Authorization Act, will produce a threat assessment, a “detailed review” on the country’s nuclear weapons policy and strategy, recommendations for changes as well as submit a final report to lawmakers by the end of this year. The group is made up of names that will be very familiar with the nuclear community.

The Curious Case of the Accidental Indian Missile Launch 

Christopher Clary | War on the Rocks

With global attention fixed on Ukraine, you could be forgiven for missing something that would have been major news in more normal times: An Indian cruise missile landed in Pakistan last week. It appears to have been an accident and, thankfully, it appears to have been unarmed, but any missile fired from one nuclear-armed country at another demands closer scrutiny. The episode raises a series of questions about safety and security procedures that Indian authorities need to address. Perhaps this accident will even prompt India to reconsider long-dormant diplomatic proposals to reduce nuclear risks in South Asia.

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.