Edition

The Crisis of Nuclear Arms Control

IN THIS ISSUE: The Crisis of Nuclear Arms Control, Concern Grows That North Korea Is Preparing for First Underground Nuclear Test in Years, S. Korea Conducts Rocket Launch Days After North’s ICBM Test, War Sanctions Snag Russia’s Building of Nuclear Plant in Turkey, Air Force Ditches Plans to Buy First Hypersonic ARRW Missile in FY23, US Imposes New Sanctions Against Iran’s Ballistic Missile Progr

Published on March 31, 2022

The Crisis of Nuclear Arms Control

Ulrich Kühn | German Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies

“Arms control has certainly gone off the tracks. For several years what are called arms negotiations have been mostly a public exchange of accusations …” One could be forgiven for thinking that this quote concerns the current state of nuclear arms control between the United States and Russia—the two countries with the world’s largest nuclear arsenals. Yet Thomas Schelling wrote this observation in the winter of 1985, only two years prior to the signing of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty and six years prior to the conclusion of the first Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty I (START I). Back in 1985, bilateral nuclear arms control had been experiencing a longer period of stagnation and even regression, but it was certainly alive. Thirty-six years later, the future of nuclear arms control between Washington and Moscow remains in question.

Concern Grows That North Korea Is Preparing for First Underground Nuclear Test in Years

Barbara Starr and Jeremy Herb | CNN

The United States and allies believe that North Korea is beginning to make preparations for a possible underground nuclear test for the first time since 2017. North Korea has recently resumed digging tunnels and construction activities at its underground nuclear test site, according to five US officials. Commercially available satellite imagery had shown some indications of activity on the surface at Pyongyang’s remote Punggye-ri nuclear test site. It is not yet clear how soon the regime would be capable of testing a device at the site, as it depends on the pace of the activity, the officials say.

S. Korea Conducts Rocket Launch Days After North’s ICBM Test

Hyung-Jin Kim | Associated Press

South Korea said it conducted its first successful launch of a solid-fuel rocket Wednesday in what it called a major step toward acquiring a space surveillance capability amid rising animosities with rival North Korea. The launch came six days after North Korea carried out its first intercontinental ballistic missile test since 2017 in an apparent attempt to expand its weapons arsenal and increase pressure on the Biden administration amid stalled disarmament talks. The South Korean-built solid-propellant rocket soared into the sky before releasing a dummy satellite in space, according to photos released by Seoul’s Defense Ministry. A ministry statement said Defense Minister Suh Wook and other senior officials observed the liftoff.

War Sanctions Snag Russia’s Building of Nuclear Plant in Turkey

Firat Kozok and Selcan Hacaoglu | Bloomberg

Sanctions imposed over the invasion of Ukraine are complicating Russia’s construction of a $20 billion nuclear power plant in Turkey, according to two Turkish officials. The snags might delay a project critical for Turkey that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said will eventually meet about 10% of the nation’s power demand. Ankara and Moscow have discussed potential problems, including securing equipment that must be ordered from third countries by the builder, Russia’s state-controlled Rosatom Corp., said a top Turkish official directly involved in the plant’s construction.

Air Force Ditches Plans to Buy First Hypersonic ARRW Missile in FY23

Valerie Insinna | Breaking Defense

The US Air Force has no plans to buy its first Lockheed Martin-made AGM-183A Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapon in the fiscal 2023 budget, a signal it has hit pause on what was once planned to be its first operational hypersonic weapon. According to Defense Department budget documents, the Air Force has requested $46.6 million to procure one ARRW missile in FY23. But the service instead will transfer that “sliver of procurement” funding back into the research and development portion of the budget, and no procurement of ARRW is planned this year, Maj. Gen. James Peccia, the Air Force’s deputy assistant secretary for budget, said during a budget briefing on Monday. When asked whether the Air Force had plans to cancel the program, Peccia responded that the service is “not walking away” from ARRW but did not express any plans to buy the missile in future budgets.

US Imposes New Sanctions Against Iran’s Ballistic Missile Program

Jeremy Herb | CNN

The Biden administration on Wednesday enacted new sanctions against Iran’s ballistic missile program in response to a missile attack on Erbil in Iraq earlier this month. The Treasury Department announced the new sanctions against the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps unit responsible for research and development of ballistic missiles, as well as Iran’s Parchin Chemical Industries and an Iranian intermediary who worked on procurement of parts for propelling missiles. “Iran’s ballistic missile-related activities continue to destabilize the Middle East region, and the United States will continue to use every tool at our disposal to disrupt them,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement on Wednesday. The new sanctions come as the US is still trying to reach an agreement with Iran to reenter the nuclear deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. While US officials had said a deal seemed close earlier this month, there have been signs in recent days that it may not be imminent.

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.