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The Pathways of Inadvertent Escalation: Is a NATO-Russia War (Now) Possible?

IN THIS ISSUE: The Pathways of Inadvertent Escalation: Is a NATO-Russia War (Now) Possible?, Putin Spins a Conspiracy Theory That Ukraine Is on a Path to Nuclear Weapons, Negotiations Over the Iran Nuclear Deal Are Close to the End, and a Deal Appears Possible, South Koreans Overwhelmingly Want Nuclear Weapons to Confront China and North Korea, Poll Finds, Ukraine Crisis Could Spark North Korean L

Published on February 24, 2022

The Pathways of Inadvertent Escalation: Is a NATO-Russia War (Now) Possible?

Ulrich Kühn | Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

February 24, 2022 marks a historical watershed for global peace and security. Violating international law, Vladimir Putin of Russia has ordered an illegal full-fledged assault on the entire Ukraine. Russian forces are pouring into the country from at least four directions, following an initial shelling of Ukrainian airfields, air defense, command and control, and other strategic assets. Analysts, including myself, have warned of that grim scenario for months. Yet, diplomacy to avert war against Ukraine has failed.

Putin Spins a Conspiracy Theory That Ukraine Is on a Path to Nuclear Weapons

David E. Sanger | New York Times

When Ukraine gave up a huge arsenal of nuclear weapons left on its territory after the collapse of the Soviet Union, it famously struck a deal with Washington, London and Moscow, trading the weapons for a guarantee of its security and borders. Not surprisingly, the Ukrainian government is wondering what happened to that guarantee. But President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has a very different complaint: He is spinning out a conspiracy theory — perhaps as a pretext to seize the country in a military operation that began there early Thursday — that Ukraine and the United States are secretly plotting to put nuclear weapons back into the country.

Negotiations Over the Iran Nuclear Deal Are Close to the End, and a Deal Appears Possible

Karen DeYoung | Washington Post

Nearly a year after they began, success or failure in negotiations over a renewed Iran nuclear deal is now expected within the next several days. Iran’s chief negotiator, Ali Bagheri Kani, left the Vienna talks Wednesday for consultations in Tehran following a flurry of last-minute sessions with his counterparts from Europe, Russia and China. The U.S. delegations and others remained in place awaiting his return, possibly as early as Friday. “We are nearing the end,” Enrique Mora, the European Union representative to the talks, said on Twitter. Mikhail Ulyanov, who heads Russia’s delegation, tweeted that negotiators are “about to cross the finish line.”

South Koreans Overwhelmingly Want Nuclear Weapons to Confront China and North Korea, Poll Finds 

Michelle Ye Hee Lee | Washington Post

There has long been a desire among South Koreans for domestic nuclear weapons capability, but a poll shows that in the face of North Korea’s nuclear ambitions and an assertive China, that view has ballooned to more than 70 percent of the population — most of whom want to go nuclear even when the potential drawbacks are explained. The poll, released Tuesday by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, found robust support for nuclear weapons in South Korea: South Koreans want nuclear weapons even when they feel confident about the country’s alliance with the United States and about the strength of their own military. And those who support nuclear weapons now see a level of prestige associated with them.

Ukraine Crisis Could Spark North Korean Long-Range Missile Testing, Experts Say

Chad O’Carroll | NK News

Conflict in Ukraine may provide cover for North Korea to conduct long-range missile testing free of punishment, analysts told NK News on Thursday, echoing South Korean presidential hopeful Yoon Suk-yeol’s remarks from earlier this week. North Korea conducted a record-breaking seven missile launch events in January, but hasn’t tested anything since the Beijing Winter Olympics began. Now, with the main program of the Olympics complete, experts say the crises in Eastern Europe could pull global attention in Pyongyang’s favor.

China Refuses to Call Russian Attack on Ukraine an ‘Invasion,’ Deflects Blame to U.S.

Evelyn Cheng | CNBC

China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson refused to categorize Russia’s attack as an “invasion” during a press conference Thursday. Russian President Vladimir Putin announced an attack on Ukraine earlier in the day, and explosions in Kyiv and other cities in Ukraine followed. Ukraine’s military claimed to be engaged in fighting within its borders, and Ukraine President Volodimyr Zelenskyy described the violence as an invasion to destroy the country.

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