Edition

The Renuclearization of Europe and the Limits of History

IN THIS ISSUE: The Renuclearization of Europe and the Limits of History, North Korea Likely to Use Nukes to Coerce its Neighbors: US Intelligence Report, White House ‘Confident’ In AUKUS Plan for Australian Nuclear-powered Submarine Fleet, France Conducts Maiden Test of Hypersonic Glider, Punggye-ri Update: No Indications of Test Preparations, The Terror of Threes in the Heavens and on Earth

Published on June 27, 2023

The Renuclearization of Europe and the Limits of History 

Ulrich Kuhn and Tim Thies | TPQ

Against the backdrop of Russia’s war against Ukraine, the military balance in Europe is shifting in NATO’s favor. Russia is dedicating much of its conventional forces to the fighting in Ukraine. Analysts have observed that Moscow faces significant obstacles to rapidly rebuilding its military. Meanwhile, NATO is reinforcing its conventional posture along its eastern flank. Finland has joined the alliance, and Sweden is poised to follow suit. As a result, the NATO-Russia border has more than doubled, and operations in the Baltic Sea will become much more complicated for Russia.

North Korea Likely to Use Nukes to Coerce its Neighbors: US Intelligence Report

Ifang Bremer | NK News

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un will likely use his growing nuclear arsenal to coerce neighboring countries, including by taking bigger risks with its conventional military forces, according to a newly declassified U.S. intelligence report. “We assess that through 2030, Kim Jong Un most likely will continue to pursue a strategy of coercion, potentially including non-nuclear lethal attacks, aimed at advancing the North’s goals of intimidating its neighbors, extracting concessions and bolstering the regime’s military credentials domestically,” the National Intelligence Council (NIC) writes in the report released Thursday.

White House ‘Confident’ In AUKUS Plan for Australian Nuclear-powered Submarine Fleet

John Grady | USNI 

The White House’s senior coordinator for the Indo-Pacific is “confident” that Australia, the United Kingdom and United States can meet the challenge of Canberra fielding its own nuclear-powered submarine force. Speaking Monday at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Kurt Campbell said that after 18 months of intense study and discussion, “we have the necessary understanding” of what must be done to build and maintain the submarines and also to explore technology transfers among the three allies.

France Conducts Maiden Test of Hypersonic Glider

Reuters

France has conducted a maiden test of a prototype hypersonic glider, the country's defence procurement agency said, as it seeks to develop new missile technology capable of evading the most sophisticated air defences. The agency said a sounding rocket carrying a VMAX hypersonic glider launched on Monday from the Biscarosse missile test site on the Bay of Biscay, southwestern France.

Punggye-ri Update: No Indications of Test Preparations

Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., Victor Cha and Jennifer Jun

Recent satellite imagery of the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Facility shows minor activity at the main administration and support area and no significant activity at the collapsed Tunnels No. 1, 2, and 4. There is no new activity around the portal to Tunnel No. 3, but preparations at this tunnel are believed to have been long since completed. The reason for the delay in the anticipated seventh nuclear test is unknown. The recent failure of the Chollima 1 SLV with its Malligyong 1 military reconnaissance satellite at Sohae Satellite Launching Station may serve as an inducement for Kim to conduct the nuclear test this summer.

The Terror of Threes in the Heavens and on Earth 

William J. Broad | The New York Times

Experts say the tripolar age could put human survival at risk. But they also cite a number of three-body lessons from nature — starting with Newton’s — that illuminate the issue and suggest possible ways forward. So far, however, no answer stands out. The world’s nuclear thinkers are finding the knotty topic to be as intractable as it was for Newton.

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