The United States’ Nuclear and Non-Nuclear Weapons Are Dangerously Entangled
James Acton and Nicholas Blanchette | Foreign Policy
In October 1973, an unreliable radiation detector could have caused the end of the world. The setting was the Yom Kippur War between Israel and a coalition of Arab states, and the superpowers found themselves being sucked into the conflict. In the war’s febrile final days, the United States detected what appeared to be radiation from a Soviet freighter headed for Egypt and concluded—almost certainly incorrectly—that Moscow was transferring nuclear warheads to Cairo. Partly in response, on Oct. 24, Washington placed its nuclear forces on a global alert for only the fourth time in history—a step it has taken only twice since. The U.S. alert prompted the Soviet Union to reportedly issue a preliminary order to begin the alerting of its own nuclear forces. This chain of events, which could have culminated in a nuclear war, provides a timely warning. Growing entanglement between nuclear and nonnuclear weapons is exacerbating closely related dangers. In particular, nuclear-armed states are relying ever more heavily on dual-use weapons, which can accommodate nuclear or nonnuclear warheads, thus exacerbating the risk that one side might wrongly conclude that another had deployed nuclear weapons. In a crisis or conflict, the result could be an escalation spiral that, unlike in 1973, spins all the way to nuclear devastation.
Statement of Spokesman for DPRK State Affairs Commission
KCNA
Despite our repeated warnings, the U.S. and the south Korean side decided to push ahead with the military drill hostile to the DPRK at the most sensitive time. This has further enraged our people, making it hard for them to keep the patience they have so far exercised. The U.S. is not accepting with due consideration the year-end time limit that we set out of great patience and magnanimity. Such moves of the U.S. constitute an undisguised breach of the June 12 DPRK-U.S. joint statement adopted on the basis of mutual trust and an open denial of the Singapore agreement which evoked great sensation worldwide. We, without being given anything, gave things the U.S. president can brag about but the U.S. side has not yet taken any corresponding step. Now, betrayal is only what we feel from the U.S. side. Now that the physical movement of threatening our sovereignty and the security environment is clearly seen, it is the exercise of the full-fledged self-defensive right of a sovereign state to take countermeasures to contain it. It is our intention and will to answer dialogue with dialogue and recourse to force in kind.
Pentagon Chief Open to Military Adjustments to Support North Korea Diplomacy
Phil Stewart | Reuters
U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper said on Wednesday he was open to new alterations in U.S. military activity on the Korean Peninsula if it helped enable diplomats, who are trying to jump-start stalled peace efforts with North Korea. Esper did not predict whether he might end up “dialing up or dialing down” such activity, as he spoke to a small group of reporters at Joint Base Lewis-McChord on his way to South Korea after North Korea threatened to retaliate if the United States goes ahead with scheduled military drills with South Korea. Tensions are growing on the peninsula ahead of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s year-end deadline for Washington to show more flexibility in denuclearization talks. Esper declined to detail what kinds of activity could be altered but did not rule out a further reduction in U.S. military exercises with South Korea, which U.S. President Donald Trump ordered scaled back last year. The North brands such U.S.-South Korean exercises as hostile and still strongly objects to them, even in their current form and earlier on Wednesday, Pyongyang threatened to retaliate if the United States goes ahead with scheduled military drills with South Korea.
Russia’s 1st Two Avangard Hypersonic Missile Systems to Assume Combat Duty – Sources
TASS
The first two UR-100N UTTKh intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) outfitted with the Avangard nuclear boost-glide vehicle will go on experimental combat duty in coming weeks. Work is underway to prepare and place the missiles into silos, a source in the defense industry told TASS on Wednesday. Work is currently underway in the positioning area "to prepare both missiles and place them into the silos, check the operation of the regiment’s protected command post and carry out other measures," the source added. The Avangard is a strategic intercontinental ballistic missile system equipped with a hypersonic glide vehicle. As another source in the defense industry told TASS in October last year, two Avangard regiments with six silo-based missiles each were due to assume combat duty in Russia.
European Concerns Raise Prospect of Renewed U.N. Sanctions on Iran
John Irish, Robin Emmott | Reuters
Europe’s threat to trigger a mechanism that could reimpose United Nations sanctions on Iran marks a significant breakdown in diplomacy to try to save the 2015 nuclear deal and could presage its death knell, diplomats say. The U.N. nuclear watchdog (IAEA) confirmed on Monday that Iran had resumed enriching uranium in its underground Fordow plant and was rapidly accelerating enrichment with a variety of advanced centrifuge machines also banned by the deal. The move has alarmed European powers that had previously dismissed Tehran’s breaches, such as exceeding the cap on stockpiles of enriched uranium and on the fissile purity of enrichment, as insignificant and reversible. Britain, France, and Germany raised the prospect of a restoration of international sanctions for the first time late on Monday after a meeting of foreign ministers in Paris, saying they were ready “to consider all mechanisms ... including the dispute resolution mechanism”.
Is the U.S. About to Test a New Ballistic Missile?
Aaron Mehta | Defense News
The U.S. may be set to test a new ground-launched ballistic missile in the coming weeks, the first test of that particular weapon since the country withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty earlier this year. In March, Pentagon officials told reporters that they intend to test an intermediate range ballistic missile in the November time frame. At the annual Defense News Conference in September, Robert Soofer, deputy assistant secretary of defense for policy for nuclear and missile defense, confirmed that the Pentagon is roughly on track for that test. Asked about Soofer’s comments and whether those tests are still planned, Pentagon spokesman Lt. Col. Robert Carver could not “confirm or deny a test will take place in November. I am unable to provide any details on testing dates, times or locations.” The test, should it happen as planned, is expected to involve a ballistic missile with a potential range of roughly 3,000-4,000 kilometers. Pentagon officials previously speculated that any deployment of such a weapon, potentially to Guam, would not be likely for at least five years.