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To Avert Armageddon, Push for a Cease-Fire in Ukraine

IN THIS ISSUE: To Avert Armageddon, Push for a Cease-Fire in Ukraine, US Will Soon Need to Deter Two Major Nuclear Powers for First Time, White House Says, Biden: I Don't Think Putin Will Use Nuclear Weapons, Ukraine Nuclear Chief: Zaporizhzhia Plant Does not Need Russian Fuel, U.S. Says Iran Nuclear Deal is 'Not Our Focus Right Now', How Close Is Vladimir Putin to Using a Nuclear Bomb?, It’s Time

Published on October 13, 2022

To Avert Armageddon, Push for a Cease-Fire in Ukraine

Ariel Levite and George Perkovich | Foreign Policy 

Forcing a cornered nuclear-armed state led by a man who sees his misguided war as an existential struggle into a complete and humiliating retreat poses far greater risks than the benefits of trying to recapture every square mile of Ukrainian territory occupied by Russian forces. A negotiated cease-fire, with strong enforcement, is the best option.

US Will Soon Need to Deter Two Major Nuclear Powers for First Time, White House Says

Julian Borger | The Guardian 

 Within a decade, the US will need to deter two major nuclear weapons powers for the first time, the Biden administration has warned, pointing to the Russian arsenal that is increasingly being brandished by Moscow and an expanding Chinese stockpile. The president’s new national security strategy (NSS) depicts China as the most capable long-term competitor, but Russia as the more immediate, disruptive threat, pointing to its nuclear posturing over Ukraine. It warns that threat could grow as Russian forces continue to suffer defeats on the battlefield.

Biden: I Don't Think Putin Will Use Nuclear Weapons

Olivia Olander | Politico 

President Joe Biden continued to explain and modify his warning about nuclear “Armageddon” from Russia, a stark suggestion about the potential for escalation in Russia’s war against Ukraine he made last week. The most recent remarks came in a wide-ranging interview with CNN host Jake Tapper, which aired Tuesday and covered both domestic and international issues. Asked by Tapper whether he thought Putin would actually use nuclear weapons, Biden said, “I don’t think he will. But I think that it’s irresponsible for him to talk about it.” The threat of a nuclear weapon could lead, Biden said, “to just a horrible outcome. And not because anybody intends to turn it into a world war or anything, but ... the mistakes that can be made, the miscalculations, who knows what would happen?”

Ukraine Nuclear Chief: Zaporizhzhia Plant Does not Need Russian Fuel

Jonathan Landay | Reuters

The head of Ukraine's state nuclear energy firm decried as "fake news" on Thursday Moscow's assertions that the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant would require Russian fuel. Energoatom chief Petro Kotin told Reuters in an interview there were two years' worth of fuel supplies stored at the six-reactor plant, which is still operated by Ukrainian staff. Kotin also said the staff were facing threats of forced conscription into the Russian military.

U.S. Says Iran Nuclear Deal is 'Not Our Focus Right Now'

Reuters 

The United States on Wednesday said that reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal is "not our focus right now," saying Tehran had showed little interest in reviving the pact and that Washington was concentrating on how to support Iranian protesters…"It is very clear and the Iranians have made very clear that this is not a deal that they have been prepared to make. The deal certainly does not appear imminent," Price told a briefing."Nothing we've heard in recent weeks suggests they have changed their position. And so right now our focus ... is on the remarkable bravery and courage that the Iranian people are exhibiting through their peaceful demonstrations," he said.

How Close Is Vladimir Putin to Using a Nuclear Bomb?

Isaac Chotiner | The New Yorker

To understand the impact of Russia’s potential use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, as well as possible American responses to it, I recently spoke by phone with Ankit Panda, an expert on nuclear weapons and the Stanton Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. During our conversation… we also discussed why nuclear weapons are not necessarily a game changer for Russia’s military aims, exactly how rational Putin’s behavior has been, and why decades of nuclear peace may have given the world a false sense of security.

It’s Time to Accept That North Korea Has Nuclear Weapons

Jeffery Lewis | The New York Times

The 30-year U.S. effort to compel North Korea to give up its ballistic missile and nuclear weapons capabilities has rested on offering Pyongyang a simple choice: a relationship with the United States, or weapons and isolation…It’s time for the United States to face reality. Efforts to encourage Mr. Kim to abandon his weapons have not only failed, but he is as clear as ever about using them to protect his country. Washington needs to contemplate the unthinkable: accepting that North Korea is a nuclear state

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.