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To Reboot Arms Control, Start With Small Steps

To Reboot Arms Control, Start With Small Steps, U.S., Russia Near Deal to Extend Nuclear Treaty and Freeze Warheads for a Year, Creating an Opportunity to Withdraw U.S. Nuclear Weapons From Europe, Pentagon Estimates Cost of New Nuclear Missiles at $95.8B, Satellite Images Indicate Russia is Preparing to Resume Testing its Nuclear-Powered Cruise Missile, India Successfully Test-Fires Naval Version of BrahMos Missile

Published on October 20, 2020

To Reboot Arms Control, Start With Small Steps

Andrey Baklitskiy, Alexandra Bell, and Tong Zhao | Defense One

After generations of careful and painstaking work to build a global arms control architecture, it is now collapsing. The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, or New START, is the last legally binding treaty constraining the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals and unless extended, it will expire in less than six months. At the same time, nuclear stockpiles are on the rise, which can lead to a new nuclear arms race, putting every nation on this planet in danger. The situation is dire, but not inevitable or irreversible. Starting with an extension of New START and moving to constructive and fair dialogues on reducing nuclear risks, we can change our collective fate.

U.S., Russia Near Deal to Extend Nuclear Treaty and Freeze Warheads for a Year

Michael R. Gordon and Ann M. Simmons | Wall Street Journal

The U.S. and Russia are on the verge of an arms-control deal that would freeze the number of nuclear warheads on each side and extend the New START agreement for a year, a senior Trump administration official said Tuesday. “We are very, very close to a deal,” the official said. “Now that the Russians have agreed to a warhead freeze, I do not see why we cannot work out the remaining issues in the coming days.” The Trump administration has been pressing Russia to conclude the agreement before the Nov. 3 U.S. election, a development that would provide President Trump with a diplomatic achievement in the final days of his campaign. On Friday, the two sides appeared to be at odds over Russian President Vladimir Putin’s proposal that the 2011 New START treaty—which cuts long-range arms and is due to expire in February—be extended unconditionally for a year.

Creating an Opportunity to Withdraw U.S. Nuclear Weapons From Europe

Pia Fuhrhop, Ulrich Kühn, and Oliver Meier | Arms Control Today

In May 2020, a debate erupted in Germany on the future of NATO nuclear sharing and Berlin’s participation in the arrangement that has seen U.S. nuclear weapons deployed in European nations for decades. This may well turn out to be an opportunity for the alliance, European security, and arms control. Even though it might not sound very realistic today, within the next five years the United States could withdraw the tactical weapons it deploys in Europe with no negative consequences for NATO unity and the security of Europe. In order to secure such an outcome, German leaders and NATO policymakers will have to combine reassurance and arms control in novel and smart ways.

Pentagon Estimates Cost of New Nuclear Missiles at $95.8B

Robert Burns | Associated Press

The Pentagon has raised to $95.8 billion the estimated cost of fielding a new fleet of land-based nuclear missiles to replace the Minuteman 3 arsenal that has operated continuously for 50 years, officials said Monday. The estimate is up about $10 billion from four years ago. The weapons, known as intercontinental ballistic missiles, or ICBMs, are intended as part of a near-total replacement of the American nuclear force over the next few decades at a total cost of more than $1.2 trillion. Some, including former Defense Secretary William J. Perry, argue that U.S. national security can be ensured without ICBMs, but the Pentagon says they are vital to deterring war. The Trump administration affirmed its commitment to fielding a new generation of ICBMs in a 2018 review of nuclear policy.

Satellite Images Indicate Russia is Preparing to Resume Testing its Nuclear-Powered Cruise Missile

Zachary Cohen | CNN

New satellite images obtained by CNN indicate Russia is preparing to resume test flights of its nuclear-powered cruise missile at a previously-dismantled launch site near the Arctic Circle, according to experts who have analyzed the photos. The images, captured by Planet Labs in September, show high levels of activity at a site known as Pankovo, previously used by Russia to test its Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile, according to Michael Duitsman and Jeffrey Lewis, researchers at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies. Russia appeared to pause testing of the missile after 2018, when it dismantled the launch site but “the new satellite photographs indicate that the pause is over,” they added.

India Successfully Test-Fires Naval Version of BrahMos Missile

The Hindu

A naval version of the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile was successfully test-fired from an indigenously built stealth destroyer of the Indian Navy in the Arabian Sea on Sunday, officials said. The missile was fired from INS Chennai, a stealth destroyer, and it hit the target with pin-point accuracy after performing “extremely complex” maneuvers, they said. “BrahMos as ‘prime strike weapon’ will ensure the warship’s invincibility by engaging naval surface targets at long ranges, thus making the destroyer another lethal platform of Indian Navy,” the defense ministry said in a statement. BrahMos Aerospace, an India-Russia joint venture, produces the supersonic cruise missile that can be launched from submarines, ships, aircraft, or from land platforms.

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