Edition

Toward a Just U.S. Nuclear Declaratory Policy

IN THIS ISSUE: Toward a Just U.S. Nuclear Declaratory Policy, The Biden Administration and a New Approach to Denuclearization?, Iran Enriching With New Set of Advanced Machines at Natanz: IAEA, Lawmakers Gird for Spending Battle Over Nuclear Weapons, Iran Nuclear Probe is a Task Without End for Top Global Monitor, Nuclear Power Looks to Regain Its Footing 10 Years After Fukushima

Published on March 9, 2021

Toward a Just U.S. Nuclear Declaratory Policy

George Perkovich and Pranay Vaddi | Arms Control Today

When adversaries consider each other’s capabilities and intentions, they focus on whichever is most threatening. With nuclear weapons, force posture and operational practices are usually considered more important than what leaders declare are circumstances in which they would consider unleashing nuclear weapons. Still, nuclear policies and forces require rationales to guide them. Declaratory policy articulates such rationales, even if decision-making on the development of nuclear weapons and other capabilities sometimes has a bureaucratic-political-economic logic of its own.

The Biden Administration and a New Approach to Denuclearization?

Toby Dalton | RINSA Forum

Will the new administration of President Joe Biden change tack on North Korea policy, finally jettisoning the “maximum pressure” approach in favor of a more practical attempt to work simultaneously toward peace and denuclearization? Early pronouncements from the State Department suggest three plausible, intersecting aims of U.S. policy toward North Korea’s nuclear program going forward: a coordinated alliance approach; threat reduction; and long-term denuclearization. The key issue is whether Washington opts for continuity or an entirely new approach. If the Biden administration simply sustains “pressure” via multilateral sanctions, the probability of progress toward threat reduction and denuclearization is, at it has been for the last decade, close to zero.

Iran Enriching With New Set of Advanced Machines at Natanz: IAEA

Francois Murphy | Reuters

Iran has started enriching uranium with a third set of advanced IR-2m centrifuges at its underground plant at Natanz, the UN nuclear watchdog told its member states on Monday, a further breach of Tehran’s 2015 deal with major powers. The move is part of a recent acceleration by Iran of its violations of restrictions under that deal, which granted Iran relief from financial sanctions in return for curbs to its nuclear activities. It began breaching limits after then-U.S. President Donald Trump quit the deal and re-imposed sanctions in 2018. The acceleration of breaches appears aimed at raising pressure on Trump’s successor Joe Biden. 

Lawmakers Gird for Spending Battle Over Nuclear Weapons

Rebecca Kheel | The Hill

Nuclear weapons are emerging as one of the top political brawls in the brewing battle over next year's defense budget. Democrats have been introducing bills to curtail costly nuclear modernization programs, as well writing letters urging President Biden to support their efforts. But Republicans are shooting back with their own letters and op-eds calling on Biden to stay the course on programs that largely originated during the Obama administration. They’re also working to pin down Pentagon nominees on where they stand.

Iran Nuclear Probe is a Task Without End for Top Global Monitor

Jonathan Tirone | Bloomberg

The international probe into Iran’s atomic activities may go on for years, according to the official whose efforts to ensure the country doesn’t develop a nuclear weapon are inextricably linked with diplomacy to calm spiraling tensions in the Persian Gulf. International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said that even if Tehran manages to clarify the source of man-made uranium particles detected last year at several undeclared locations, the work of his inspections team won’t be finished. “Additional information may come up,” Grossi, 60, said in an interview Tuesday. “In non-proliferation, there is no final, definite clean bill of health.”

Nuclear Power Looks to Regain Its Footing 10 Years After Fukushima

Jeremy Hsu | Scientific American

Nuclear power faces a wobbly future 10 years after an earthquake and tsunami triggered a triple reactor meltdown at the Fukushima Daiichi plant in Japan. But the industry’s unstable footing has less to do with the Fukushima accident—and more to do with how a natural gas glut and the rise of renewable power have transformed the global energy landscape. Fukushima has certainly left its mark on the nuclear industry. When the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami occurred on March 11, 2011, there were 54 nuclear reactors in Japan. Since then about a third of them have been permanently shut down, and only nine have resumed operation. 

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.