Toward Accountable Nuclear Deterrents: How Much is Too Much?
George Perkovich | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
For decades, policy debates in nuclear-armed states and alliances have centered on the question, “How much is enough?” What size and type of arsenal, and what doctrine, are enough to credibly deter given adversaries? This paper argues that the more urgent question today is, “How much is too much?” What size and type of arsenal, and what doctrine, are too likely to produce humanitarian and environmental catastrophe that would be strategically and legally indefensible? Two international initiatives could help answer this question. One would involve nuclear-armed states, perhaps with others, commissioning suitable scientific experts to conduct new studies on the probable climatic and environmental consequences of nuclear war. They should explore what changes in numbers, yields, and targets of nuclear weapons would significantly reduce the probability of nuclear winter. The second initiative would query all nuclear-armed states whether they plan to adhere to international humanitarian law in deciding if and when to detonate nuclear weapons, and if so, how their arsenals and operational plans affirm their intentions (or not). The two proposed initiatives would help states and civil society experts to better reconcile the (perceived) need for nuclear deterrence with the strategic, legal, and physical imperatives of reducing the probability that a war escalates to catastrophic proportions.
Trump Budget Calls for New Nuclear Warheads and 2 Types of Missiles
David Sanger | New York Times
The Trump administration has begun to put a price tag on its growing arms race with Russia and China, and the early numbers indicate that restoring nuclear weapons to a central role in American military strategy will cost tens of billions of dollars over the next decade. In the 2021 budget released on Monday, the administration revealed for the first time that it intended to create a new submarine-launched nuclear warhead, named the W93. Its development is part of a proposed 19 percent increase this year, to $19.8 billion, for the National Nuclear Security Administration, the Energy Department agency that maintains the nuclear stockpile and develops new nuclear warheads. More tellingly, that is a jump of more than 50 percent since 2017, President Trump’s first year in office. Buried in the budget is a significant new effort to develop intermediate-range missiles — largely conventional weapons — that were prohibited by the Intermediate Nuclear Forces treaty with Moscow that Mr. Trump withdrew from last year. In fact, the administration has put so many new projects in front of the Energy Department and the Pentagon that it seems unlikely many of them will get done, at least on the schedule Mr. Trump envisioned in his budget plan. The W93 weapon would not go into production until 2034, or nearly a decade after Mr. Trump would leave office if elected to a second term. Another new nuclear warhead, called the 87-1, a redesign of a 40-year-old thermonuclear weapon made for ground-based missiles, would not begin production until 2030.
Trump Under Pressure to Renew Last Nuke Treaty With Russia
Rebecca Kheel | Hill
Supporters of a key arms control treaty between the United States and Russia are raising pressure on the Trump administration to renew the pact after the one-year deadline to do so passed. Democratic lawmakers, arms control advocates and at least one Republican issued a flood of statements this week urging President Trump to renew the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), which they fear he will allow to lapse. Whether their pressure campaign is working is another question. Administration officials have said they want to update the treaty by adding China and expanding it to cover new weapons, but there has been no apparent movement on talks as the agreement’s expiration looms. National security adviser Robert O’Brien said this past week arms control talks with Russia would begin “soon.” The New START’s expiration date comes a couple weeks after the next presidential inauguration date, meaning the decision to renew it could be left to Trump’s successor if he’s defeated in November. Major Democratic candidates — including former Vice President Joe Biden; former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg; Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.); and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) — have backed renewing the treaty. Sens. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) and Todd Young (R-Ind.), co-sponsors of a resolution supporting New START’s extension, also put out statements about the impending expiration.
North Korea Enhanced Nuclear, Missile Programs in 2019 in Breach of Sanctions – UN Report
Michelle Nichols | Reuters
North Korea continued to enhance its nuclear and ballistic missile programs last year in breach of United Nations sanctions, according to a confidential U.N. report seen by Reuters on Monday. The country also illicitly imported refined petroleum and exported some $370 million worth of coal with the help of Chinese barges, the report added. The 67-page report to the U.N. Security Council North Korea sanctions committee, which is due to be made public next month, comes as the United States tries to revive stalled denuclearization talks with North Korea. “In 2019, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) did not halt its illicit nuclear and ballistic missile programs, which it continued to enhance, in violation of Security Council resolutions,” the independent U.N. sanctions monitors wrote. The sanctions monitors said that in a fresh bid to evade sanctions, North Korea had started to export millions of tonnes of commodities - banned since 2017 - using barges. “According to a Member State, the DPRK exported 3.7 million metric tons of coal between January and August 2019, with an estimated value of $370 million,” the report said. Pyongyang ally China has repeatedly said it is implementing U.N. sanctions. In a statement, China’s mission to the United Nations described any accusations against China as “baseless.”
France Seeks Lead Post-Brexit Role in EU Nuclear Strategy
AP
French President Emmanuel Macron on Friday advocated a more coordinated European Union defense strategy in which France, the bloc's only post-Brexit nuclear power, and its arsenal would occupy a central role. Macron outlined France's nuclear strategy during a speech to graduating military officers one week after Britain, Europe's only other nuclear-armed state, officially exited the EU. The French leader said his country sees its nuclear weapons as a deterrent against attacks from belligerent foes, though acknowledged that France's nuclear might is diminished after its military scaled down its arsenal to under 300 nuclear weapons. But Macron's keynote speech aimed to project strength. The president said he refused to sign any treaties at this time to further reduce the size of France's nuclear arsenal and announced an increase in military spending. The central idea in the speech, however, was that of a boosted Europe-wide role for the French nuclear arsenal in a more coordinated European defense policy. Macron said it the strategy would prevent Europe “confining itself to a spectator role" in an environment dominated by Russia, the United States and China. His remarks come at a time when NATO allies, who would ordinarily look to the United States for help in a nuclear standoff, worry about Washington's retreat from the multilateral stage. This could create new tensions within NATO, where Macron ruffled feathers last year by saying the lack of U.S. leadership is causing the “brain death” of the military alliance.
Trump Tells Advisers He Doesn’t Want Another Summit With North Korea’s Kim Before the Election
Kylie Atwood and Vivian Salama | CNN
President Donald Trump has told top foreign policy advisers that he does not want another summit with Kim Jong Un before the presidential election in November, according to two sources familiar with the discussions. Trump's last meeting with the North Korean dictator took place almost exactly a year ago, and both leaders walked away empty-handed. Since then diplomacy -- aimed at achieving the denuclearization of North Korea -- has floundered, and as Trump focuses on his re-election campaign his appetite to engage on the issue has waned, according to the sources. Trump expressed his frustration late last year after the first working-level talks between the two countries for 8 months fell apart in October, sources explained. US negotiators believed they were making progress during the talks in Stockholm until the North Koreans claimed they broke down because the US had come “empty handed.” One official familiar with the administration's efforts with North Korea bluntly described the negotiations as “dead.” The US government has completely stopped issuing special circumstance permits for travel to North Korea, this person added. Those working on Trump's reelection campaign do not believe North Korea is an issue crucial to the President winning a return to office. It was also noticeable that Trump did not mention the country in his State of the Union speech this week.