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Trump Thought he Had a Nuclear Deal With Putin. Not So Fast, Russia Said

IN THIS ISSUE: Trump Thought he Had a Nuclear Deal With Putin. Not So Fast, Russia Said, Rouhani Celebrates end of Iran Arms Embargo, Vipin Narang on the Global Nuclear Landscape: Hype and Reality, North Korea’s Nuclear, Missile Programs ‘Serious Threat’ to Security: Pentagon Chief, UK Ballistic Missile Sub Crew Suffers COVID-19 Outbreak After Visit to U.S. Sub Base, China Has Expanded the Shipyard Where its Nuclear Submarines Are Built, Satellite Imagery Shows

Published on October 15, 2020

Trump Thought he Had a Nuclear Deal With Putin. Not So Fast, Russia Said

David E. Sanger and Andrew E. Kramer | New York Times

President Trump had a pre-election plan to show he had gotten something out of his mysteriously friendly relationship with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia. In the weeks before the election, the two men would announce that they had reached an agreement in principle to extend New START, the last remaining major arms control agreement between the two countries. It expires on Feb. 5, two weeks after the next presidential inauguration. Mr. Trump has long refused to sign off on a clean five-year extension of the agreement, a step both leaders could take without Senate approval. He has described the Obama-era treaty as deeply flawed — the same thing he said about the North American Free Trade Agreement and the Iran nuclear accord — because it did not cover all of Russia’s nuclear arms, or any of China’s. But if Mr. Putin is really rooting for Mr. Trump to be re-elected, he is not acting like it.

Rouhani Celebrates end of Iran Arms Embargo

Al-Monitor

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani exulted Oct. 14 over a soon-to-come moment of triumph as a UN arms embargo on his country is set to expire Oct. 18. “Thanks to the nation’s resistance and our diplomats’ efforts, and despite America’s push in the past four years, this unjust embargo is to be lifted,” he said of the removal, which has been made legally possible under UN Resolution 2231 and the 2015 Iran nuclear deal also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The United States, which walked away from the JCPOA in 2018, launched a diplomatic campaign in August for an extension of the Iran arms embargo. The UN Security Council, however, did not accept the US proposal. “As of Sunday [Oct. 18], we can purchase or sell arms from and to anyone we desire,” Rouhani said in his televised speech on the “US failure.” Also, in a message for critics at home, he lauded the embargo expiry as a key achievement of his administration and a significant outcome of the JCPOA, a fragile accord that has been sliding down to the cliff’s edge since the US pullout.

Vipin Narang on the Global Nuclear Landscape: Hype and Reality

Abhijnan Rej | The Diplomat

Even a casual observer of the contemporary global strategic environment will concur that nuclear weapons are very much back in the picture as several countries – including the United States and China – seek to modernize their arsenals and develop new capabilities. With many nuclear powers pushing their envelope and, in some cases, luck, and the future of arms control under stress, the current nuclear environment is defined by several challenges around proliferation and escalation risks. To understand them better, The Diplomat spoke to Vipin Narang, associate professor of political science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and member of MIT’s Security Studies Program. Narang, also a nonresident scholar in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, is author of “Nuclear Strategy in the Modern Era” (Princeton University Press, 2014).

North Korea’s Nuclear, Missile Programs ‘Serious Threat’ to Security: Pentagon Chief

Reuters

U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper on Wednesday said North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs pose a global threat, after Pyongyang’s unveiling of previously unseen intercontinental ballistic missiles at a predawn military parade. The appearance of a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) during a weekend parade in North Korea captivated many Western analysts. But officials in South Korea were far more concerned by the display of new multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) and fast, maneuverable short-range missiles that would be ideal for striking targets in the South. Speaking before the start of a meeting with South Korean Defense Minister Suh Wook at the Pentagon, Esper said: “We agree that North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs remain a serious threat to the security and stability of the region and the world.” “The United States remains committed to the security of the Republic of Korea,” Esper said.

UK Ballistic Missile Sub Crew Suffers COVID-19 Outbreak After Visit to U.S. Sub Base

Sam LaGrone | USNI News

More than 30 members of the crew of the UK Royal Navy ballistic-missile submarine HMS Vigilant (S30) have tested positive for COVID-19 following a port visit to the U.S. Navy’s East Coast SSBN hub, a U.S. official told USNI News. The official confirmed reports in the British press that the crew of the submarine had violated isolation rules put in place to prevent outbreaks on the sensitive class of submarines. Those reports said sailors from the submarine left the Navy Submarine Base Kings Bay, Ga., and traveled as far as Cocoa Beach, Fla., — 200 miles away from the submarine base. A UK Ministry of Defence spokesman told USNI News on Tuesday, “the Royal Navy does not comment on matters related to submarine operations.” In 2017, the crew of Vigilant were found to have violated liberty rules and tested positive for drug use while in port at Kings Bay. NCIS determined that U.S. sailors and personnel were not involved, USNI News reported at the time.

China Has Expanded the Shipyard Where its Nuclear Submarines Are Built, Satellite Imagery Shows

Sarah Zheng | South China Morning Post

New satellite analysis has found that China has expanded its capacity for building nuclear-powered submarines at one of its largest shipyards. The US Naval Institute (USNI) news site reported this week that commercial satellite imagery has revealed work on a new construction hall at the Bohai shipyard – a major site for China’s nuclear submarine programme – that could make room for two additional submarines to be built simultaneously. The latest hall resembles another one built there in 2015, which is believed to be intended for construction of a new generation of nuclear submarines, according to the report. This could mean the shipyard will have capacity for four or five submarines in the sheds at one time, including room for two more at the new hall and potentially another one at a third, older construction hall.

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