Two Myths about Counterforce
James Acton | War on the Rocks
The debate over targeting — and by extension U.S. nuclear strategy toward China and Russia — is an important and complex one. Unfortunately, it is being warped by the existence of two persistent myths: Myth 1: Counterforce targeting would avoid strikes on cities in all circumstances. Myth 2: The only alternative to counterforce targeting is planning for large-scale strikes against cities. I argue that these myths are, in fact, myths. To be sure, accepting my argument hardly settles the debate over targeting policy — it is entirely possible to favor counterforce targeting while recognizing that many counterforce targets are in cities and that population targeting is not the only alternative. However, the existence of these myths matters because they unfairly skew the debate by exaggerating the difference in civilian casualties that would likely be caused by counterforce attacks compared to the alternatives — an important factor in assessing the legality and morality of different targeting policies.
US Says Reliance on Russian Nuclear Fuel Presents National Security Risk
Jamie Smyth | Financial Times
US reliance on Russia’s nuclear fuel poses a critical threat to national security and climate goals, said a senior Biden administration official, who urged Congress to provide funds to rebuild its domestic supply chain and restrict imports from the country. Kathryn Huff, assistant secretary for nuclear energy, told the Financial Times it was “gravely concerning” that about 20 percent of fuel used by the US nuclear reactor fleet is supplied through enrichment contracts with Russian suppliers.
In Rare Announcement, US Says Guided Missile Sub has Arrived in Middle East, a Message of Deterrence to Adversaries
Oren Liebermann and Brad Lendon | CNN
In a rare announcement, the US military said a guided missile submarine has arrived in the Middle East, a message of deterrence clearly directed at regional adversaries as the Biden administration tries to avoid a broader conflict amid the Israel-Hamas war. US Central Command said on social media Sunday that an Ohio-class submarine was entering its area of responsibility. A picture posted with the announcement appeared to show the sub in the Suez Canal northeast of Cairo.
Russia Says it Test-fired an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile from a New Nuclear Submarine
Associated Press
The Russian military on Sunday reported a successful test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile designed to carry nuclear warheads from a new nuclear submarine...The Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement that the Imperator Alexander III strategic missile cruiser fired the Bulava missile from an underwater position in Russia’s northern White Sea, and hit a target in the far-eastern region of Kamchatka. It wasn’t immediately clear from the statement when the test launch occurred.
Israel Minister Suspended After Calling Nuking Gaza an Option
NICOLAS CAMUT | POLITICO
Israel’s Heritage Minister Amichai Eliyahu was suspended indefinitely after he said in an interview that dropping a nuclear bomb on the Gaza Strip was “one of the possibilities,” the government announced on Sunday. “Eliyahu’s statements are not based in reality,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement on X. Israel and its military “are operating in accordance with the highest standards of international law to avoid harming innocents,” the prime minister added.
Nuclear Talks With China Are Essential and Long Overdue
The Editorial Board | The New York Times
China’s apparent willingness to now consider an arrangement to open lines of military-to-military communication is welcome news. In addition to a hotline, the United States and China should also agree to provide each other with basic information about test missile launches, as America and Russia have done for years. This kind of visibility and sharing of information is critical for all nations to distinguish between routine tests and potential first strikes, to avoid catastrophe by accident.