Two Unusual Missile Launches Hint at a New Security Crisis in North Korea
Ankit Panda | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
A new crisis with North Korea is quickly brewing. The country’s leader, Kim Jong Un, remains focused on a wide-ranging military modernization agenda he had first laid out in January 2021. In the fourteen months since, Kim has shown those plans to be credible; among other capabilities, he has tested two types of hypersonic weapons and a new long-range cruise missile. Kim now appears determined to continue through his list, moving on to bigger-ticket items that could significantly harm U.S., South Korean, and Japanese interests by expanding the quality and quantity of the nuclear threat posed by North Korea’s nuclear forces.
To Support Zelensky, the United States Needs to Negotiate With Putin
James M. Acton | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
“It’s not that I want to talk to Putin,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said last week about Russia’s president. “I need to talk to Putin. The world needs to talk to Putin. There is no other way to stop this war.” . . . The United States and its allies should support Zelensky in any diplomatic course he pursues. Indeed, he cannot end the war without them. Economic sanctions on Russia strengthen his hand at the negotiating table by raising the costs to Russia of continuing to fight. By the same token, however, it is virtually inconceivable that Russia would agree to a settlement without sanctions relief. For this reason, the United States and its allies must be prepared to lift sanctions—including on Russia’s central bank—if Russia and Ukraine negotiate and implement a settlement agreement.
Russia Says U.S. Sanctions Won’t Impede Iran Atomic Business
Jonathan Tirone and Golnar Motevalli | Bloomberg
Russia said the U.S. has provided “written guarantees” that sanctions imposed over the invasion of Ukraine won’t affect its nuclear supply agreements with Iran, potentially clearing the way for a resumption of talks to revive the 2015 atomic accord. Oil prices fell. World powers and Iran suspended their efforts to restore the nuclear landmark pact on Friday, amid deepening tensions between the Kremlin and the White House. U.S. officials confirmed they were considering sanctions against Russia’s Rosatom -- the world’s biggest nuclear fuel maker -- just days after Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov demanded guarantees that such penalties wouldn’t be allowed to torpedo the Iran deal.
Germany to Buy F-35 Warplanes for Nuclear Deterrence
Sebastian Sprenger | Defense News
Germany will buy up to 35 copies of the U.S.-made F-35 fighter jet, reversing years-long plans that saw the fifth-generation warplane eliminated from consideration, defense leaders announced Monday. The planes will take over by 2030 the niche, but crucial, nuclear-weapons mission from the aging fleet of Tornado aircraft, Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht said during a joint statement with Air Force Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Ingo Gerhartz in Berlin. The decision means Germany will continue to provide suitable aircraft for carrying U.S. nuclear weapons stored in the country into a hypothetical atomic battle, as prescribed under NATO doctrine. Previously, officials were planning to buy new versions of the F-18 for that role plus the job of electronic attack and suppressing enemy air defenses.
India Accidentally Fires Missile Into Pakistan
Shan Li and Vibhuti Agarwal | Wall Street Journal
India said that it accidentally fired a missile into Pakistan this week, blaming a “technical malfunction” for a mishap that could fire up tensions between the nuclear-armed neighbors. The missile, which was fired Wednesday, damaged civilian property but resulted in no casualties, according to Pakistani officials. The two countries, which have clashed for years over the disputed territory of Kashmir, have seen relations ease slightly after agreeing to a cease-fire last year in the area along the so-called Line of Control. The line forms an official border across which there are frequent skirmishes.
Russia Deploys a Mystery Munition in Ukraine
John Ismay | New York Times
American intelligence officials have discovered that the barrage of ballistic missiles Russia has fired into Ukraine contain a surprise: decoys that trick air-defense radars and fool heat-seeking missiles. The devices are each about a foot long, shaped like a dart and white with an orange tail, according to an American intelligence official. They are released by the Iskander-M short-range ballistic missiles that Russia is firing from mobile launchers across the border, the official said, when the missile senses that it has been targeted by air defense systems. Each is packed with electronics and produces radio signals to jam or spoof enemy radars attempting to locate the Iskander-M, and contains a heat source to attract incoming missiles. The official, who was not authorized to speak publicly about intelligence matters, described the devices on the condition of anonymity.
Can Russia’s War Revive the Anti-Nuke Movement?
Jacqueline Feldscher | Defense One
In an April 5, 2009, speech in Prague, President Barack Obama set an ambitious, long-term goal: rid the world of nuclear weapons, which he called “the most dangerous legacy of the Cold War.” More than a decade later, Obama’s vision seems a fading dream to many leaders of the arms control and anti-nuclear weapons movements. Tensions with other nuclear powers are growing. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has triggered increasing concern about a nuclear standoff. Just before the invasion, Russia’s military staged provocative nuclear weapons drills last month. China is also growing its nuclear arsenal, and often clashes with the West over its territorial claims in the South China Sea. North Korea touts its Bomb; Iran edges toward developing one. In Washington, politicians are as divided as they have ever been, making ratification of a new arms control treaty almost impossible. And experts say both public interest and funding for arms control are in decline, as people care more about another existential threat: climate change. At least, they did before Russia started a new war in Europe.